Guosheng Securities: Demand for popular products is gradually improving, and three suggested ways to lay out high-quality assets

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guosheng Securities released a research report saying that currently demand in the mass products industry is gradually improving, supply and demand for dairy products are improving together, the direction of expanding snack sales channels and product health is clear. The expansion of new beverage products continues to advance, and the health product pattern is more concentrated. It suggests three ideas for laying out high-quality assets: 1) strong categories or strong channels; 2) leading to clear bottom opportunities; 3) high dividend dividends or steady leaders.

Guosheng Securities's main views are as follows:

Snacks: Mass sales expansion & store efficiency drive growth, production of snacks decelerate cost differentiation in the off-season

Reviewing the 26H1 performance of the snack sector. Currently, the industry's voice is more concentrated on vector snack sales, and channel companies are performing better than product-based companies.

1) Product-based companies: Product-type snack companies in the 26H1 snack sector achieved total revenue of 27.44 billion yuan, +7.6% over the same period, of which 26Q2 revenue was 11.05 billion yuan, -0.3% year-on-year. Overall growth in the off-season sector has decelerated, but Seagra Foods, which are creating healthy products, Youyou Foods, and Jinzai Foods, which are expanding channels, still achieved impressive growth. Considering that you include Ming Ming's busy investments using the equity method, fair value changes have a big impact. Looking at sector profits from the perspective of net profit deducted from non-return mother, 26H1 snack sector net profit of 1.22 billion yuan, +52.9% year-on-year, 26Q2 deducted net profit of non-return mother 240 million yuan, +38.9% year-on-year. The overall profit growth of the sector comes from negotiation cost dividends, e-commerce controls such as the Three Squirrels, etc., and the overall profit performance of the sector is affected by the downward channel structure. The gross profit margin of the 26H1 snack sector was 28.7%, +0.4pct year on year, of which 26Q2 gross profit margin was 28.5%, +0.1pct year over year. However, the overall market remained relatively stable, but the decline in the prices of sunflower seeds and oats formed a bargain, and rising prices of palm oil and anchovies created cost pressure on Ganyuan and Jinzai. In addition, the mass sales channel for snack shops and member stores grew rapidly, and the channel structure was adjusted. The 26H1 snack sector had a sales expense ratio of 16.5%, -1.8 pct year on year, 17.1% sales expense ratio in 26Q2, and -1.8 pct year on year. Structural optimization of fees in emerging channels and active control of e-commerce investment by enterprises all led to a steady decline in sales expenses. The 26H1 snacks sector has a net interest rate of 4.5%, +1.3 pct, 26Q2 net interest rate of 2.2%, +0.6 pct year over year. The overall net interest rate of the sector increased, but the share of companies with declining internal net interest rates was higher. In the future, more attention should be paid to the cost trends of important categories such as fats, oats, and konjac.

2) Channel companies: The 26H1 mass sales of snacks all achieved high growth. Ming Ming was very busy 26H1 had revenue of 45.0 billion yuan, +60.0% year over year. Among them, the bank saw a significant acceleration in store expansion. Ming Ming was very busy, and Wanchen Group expanded its stores by 4,457 and 5488 stores respectively. The county and countryside sank along with the expansion of stores in the northern market. At the same time as the expansion of stores accelerated, individual stores still achieved remarkable improvements. 26H1 Mingming was very busy, and Wanchen Group's single-store revenue was +3.2% and +8.4%, respectively. The results of refined management were remarkable. At the same time, the net interest rate of the business continued to rise. 26h1 Mingming was very busy. The net interest rate was +1.9pct to 5.0% year on year, and the net interest rate of Wanchen Group was +1.5pct to 5.4% year over year, driven by significant scale effects.

Dairy products: White milk is recovering and increasing, and Yili takes the initiative to clear it

The 26H1 dairy sector achieved a total revenue of 96.98 billion yuan, +3.5% year over year. Of these, the 26Q2 sector had revenue of 45.91 billion yuan, +1.9% year over year. The overall improvement in the sector was remarkable, breaking out of the sharp drop in volume and price in the past. In 2026, the bank saw positive growth in leading liquid milk. Among them, the replacement of room temperature by low temperature continued, and room temperature also recovered positively. The bank believes that the inflection point trend is clear and positive, and sector demand is showing an improvement trend. Net profit of the 26H1 sector was 6.99 billion yuan, or -15.7%. Among them, the 26Q2 sector's net profit to mother was 1.08 billion yuan, -63.5% year over year. The decline in Q2 profit was mainly due to industry tax allowances, good goodwill and inventory depreciation. The H1 Yili OP margin continued its growth trend, and the quality of subsequent growth was higher after actively applying pressure to clear statements. The gross profit margin of the 26H1 sector was 32.0%, -0.1 pct year on year, 30.5% year on year, and -0.2 pct year on year. The overall situation remained stable. The new dairy industry, etc. were affected by the channel structure. The gross margin declined slightly. Currently, along with the bottom of milk prices stabilizing, the industry has begun structural upgrading, and future product structure improvements or become easier to show. The 26H1 sector sales expense ratio was 16.3%, -0.6 pct year on year, and the 26Q2 sales expense ratio was 16.9%, -1.0 pct year on year. The overall cost investment level of the industry contracted. The net interest rate for the 26H1 sector was 7.0%, -1.9 pct year on year, 1.8% for 26Q2, and -4.7 pct year on year. Among them, Yili's 26q2 net interest rate was -7.7pct year on year. The net interest rate of the rest of the dairy companies diverged after being affected by industry tax supplements, and the high-growth new dairy industry still achieved an increase in net interest rates.

Beverages: The peak season is disrupted by the weather, and the industry decelerates in stages

The 26H1 beverage sector achieved revenue of 26.17 billion yuan, +15.6% year over year, and achieved revenue of 11.90 billion yuan in the 26Q2 single quarter, +11.2% year over year. The peak season for Q2 drinks was disrupted by rain and weather, and the sector slowed down in stages. Yangyuan Drinks, Bairun Co., Ltd., Quanyangquan, Dongpeng Drinks, and Junyao led the health growth rate. The 26H1 beverage sector achieved net profit of 4.80 billion yuan, +21.6% year over year, and 26Q2 achieved net profit of 1.96 billion yuan, +11.9% year over year. Although profit side PET prices rose, leading companies were significantly more resistant to cost fluctuations than small and medium-sized manufacturers due to large-scale procurement, lean supply chain management, and nationwide production capacity layout. The gross margin of the 26H1 beverage sector was 43.8%, +2.0pct year on year, and the gross profit margin for the 26Q2 single quarter was 43.5%, +1.8pct year on year. The net interest rate for the 26H1 beverage sector was 18.4%, +0.9pct year on year; the net interest rate for 26Q2 was 16.7%, +0.1pct year on year. The 26H1 beverage segment sales expense ratio was 16.0%, +0.3 pct year on year, and the management expense ratio was 4.0%, the same year on year; 26Q2 sales expense ratio was 17.3%, +0.8 pct year on year; 26Q2 management expense ratio was 4.7%, +0.4 pct year on year. The beverage industry is fiercely competitive. Various manufacturers continue to launch new products, and card slots are arranged in channels such as restaurants, freezers, and mass sales. At the same time, cost-side PET raw materials face great upward pressure. It is recommended to select enterprises with leading channel outlets and large product growth potential.

Health products: steady volume contraction, pattern concentration

The 26H1 health products sector achieved total revenue of 11.52 billion yuan, -1.3% year over year, and 26Q2 achieved revenue of 5.74 billion yuan, -3.8% year over year. Apart from the four companies Tomson Beijian, Jin Dawei, Lily Co., Ltd., and Bailong Chuangyuan, which maintained positive revenue growth, the overall revenue of other health products companies was under pressure. The net profit of the 26H1 health products sector was 1.4 billion yuan, 13.2% year on year, and 26Q2 net profit was 760 million yuan, +1.6% year over year. Among them, Xiwang Food Disposal's overseas subsidiaries significantly increased profits. Judging from the deduction situation, 26H1 and Q2 health products sector deducted non-net profit of -32.3% and -41.2%, respectively. The 26H1 health products sector achieved gross margin of 45.6%, +1.0pct year on year, 26Q1 gross margin of 46.7%, +2.8pct year on year, and positive recovery of gross margin. The 26H1 health products sector had a sales expense ratio of 20.2%, +3.0pct year on year, and the management cost ratio was 8.2%, which was basically the same; the 26Q2 single quarter sales expense ratio was 22.2%, +3.9 pct year on year, and the management expense ratio was 8.3%, which was basically the same year on year. The 26H1 health products sector achieved a net interest rate of 12.9%, -0.8 pct year on year, minus 9.0% non-net interest rate and -4.1pct year on year; 26Q2's net interest rate for a single quarter was 14.8%, +2.4 pct year on year, after deducting a non-net interest rate of 7.5% and -4.8 pct year on year. The bank believes that in the first half of 2026, the health products industry will continue to show a trend of steady volume contraction. Industry operations continue to show trends of stricter supervision, accelerated channel transformation, and further division of categories. Among them, channel changes, supply chain management, etc. drive active restoration of gross margin, but as competition continues to intensify, cost investment increases and overall profits are under pressure. The bank believes that the increase in industry concentration will continue in the future, and the leaders are expected to expand their share through R&D, products, and management.

Risk warning: Competition in the industry has intensified, the promotion of large products falls short of expectations, the cost of raw materials has risen above expectations, and food safety issues.