Bitcoin's US stock decoupling: 30-day correlation hits a new low after the FTX crash

According to Woofun AI, the traditional linkage relationship between Bitcoin and US stocks (NASDAQ/S&P 500) has substantially broken down, and the correlation index has fallen to the lowest level since the FTX crash in November 2022, marking that the two have officially entered a new stage of 'decoupling'.

Short-term data fluctuations clearly outline this trend. The 30-day rolling correlation bottomed out to -0.299 in December 2025, then rebounded and stabilized at around 0.18 in January 2026. Meanwhile, the three-month rolling correlation was also close to zero in mid-2026, eliminating the interference of short-term statistical noise and confirming the structural weakening of the links between assets.

The huge contrast in asset performance further confirms the divergence. From the end of August 2025 to the beginning of 2026, Bitcoin fell about 43%, while the S&P 500 rose about 7%, and gold surged 51%. After hitting an all-time high of $126,000 in October 2025, Bitcoin pulled back by more than 50% by mid-2026.

According to data compiled by Woofun AI, this divergence is mainly due to the deleveraging process after the decline in the spot Bitcoin ETF boom. The cooling of the derivatives market significantly reduced the amplification effect of macro factors on currency prices.

From a long-term perspective, BlackRock (BLK.US) points out that the 10-year correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 is only 0.18. Historically, the long-term average correlation between the two has generally remained between 0.25 and 0.32, and soared during the financial crisis due to full sell-offs. The current reading below 0.20 is at the opposite extreme, indicating that Bitcoin is gradually getting rid of the attributes of a 'highly leveraged technology stock', and the characteristics of an independent market are becoming more and more prominent.