Hawaii monitors major Hurricane Karina, Lowell as Tropical Storm Marie develops in supercharged Pacific

THE TAKEAWAY:

Tropical trouble in the Pacific continues to build with Tropical Storm Marie forming early Tuesday morning. Meanwhile, the main focus remains on Category 4 Hurricane Karina and Tropical Storm Lowell, both of which could bring potential impacts to Hawaii down the line.

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"There are no immediate threats, but that could certainly change," the FOX Forecast Center notes.

Activity across the basin continues to boom, supercharged by an ongoing El Niño pattern that is fueling high activity across the Pacific.

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Category 4 Hurricane Karina continues to intensify over the open waters of the eastern Pacific, while Tropical Storm Lowell battles persistent wind shear. 

Both systems are tracking generally westward, and a major question remains regarding how they will interact with one another. 

Karina is currently being steered west by high pressure to its north. If this northern ridge strengthens, there is a chance it could force a slightly more southerly track toward Hawaii way down the line. 

Meanwhile, Lowell should maintain a westward path through the next couple of days, held on course by high pressure established to its north. 

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Beyond that, the forecast becomes more complicated, with model guidance showing increasing disagreement on exactly when—and how sharply—the storm will turn west-northwest.

Part of that uncertainty is tied directly to Hurricane Karina to the northeast, which could influence Lowell’s steering pattern later in the forecast.

A closer interaction with the larger Karina could disrupt Lowell’s environment and cap its development. Conversely, a greater separation would allow Lowell to take better advantage of otherwise favorable conditions. 

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For now, Lowell is projected to track south of Hawaii before likely making a larger turn to the north, but the long-range future holds too many variables to provide clearer details.

Invest 95E is now Tropical Storm Marie off the southwest Mexican coast, with environmental conditions conducive for continued growth and further development.

The FOX Forecast Center is monitoring whether moisture from newly formed Tropical Storm Marie will track into California early next week. 

While there is plenty of time to watch that long-range potential, a more immediate tropical connection is already ramping up the Southwest Monsoon.

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As Marie pulls northward through the end of the week, it will pump additional tropical moisture to the region, prompting a Level 2 out of 4 flash flood risk across southern Arizona on Friday, including Phoenix and Tucson.