China Merchants Securities released a research report saying that the uncertainty about liquor has gradually dissipated, and the bottom is moderately optimistic, focusing on individual stocks that have come out of adjustment. Looking ahead to 26H2 to 2027, as inventory is digested and channel pressure is reduced, prices are expected to bottom up, the superposition reporting base declines, the decline in revenue and profit narrows, and the probability of even resuming growth will gradually increase. However, at present, actual sales have not fully recovered; fundamentals are still on the left; the sector does not yet have the conditions for comprehensive restoration. Investment opportunities depend more on the pace of individual stock adjustments. Stock selection returns to the business cycle, and focuses on observing the resonance of the three indicators of terminal sales, channel inventory, and reporting base — sales decide to improve quality, inventory determines the slope of recovery, and the base determines when performance is corrected; sales and inventory have not improved simultaneously by relying on a low base to correct; it is only a phased restoration at the digital level.

China Merchants Securities released a research report saying that the uncertainty about liquor has gradually dissipated, and the bottom is moderately optimistic, focusing on individual stocks that have come out of adjustment. Looking ahead to 26H2 to 2027, as inventory is digested and channel pressure is reduced, prices are expected to bottom up, the superposition reporting base declines, the decline in revenue and profit narrows, and the probability of even resuming growth will gradually increase. However, at present, actual sales have not fully recovered; fundamentals are still on the left; the sector does not yet have the conditions for comprehensive restoration. Investment opportunities depend more on the pace of individual stock adjustments. Stock selection returns to the business cycle, and focuses on observing the resonance of the three indicators of terminal sales, channel inventory, and reporting base — sales decide to improve quality, inventory determines the slope of recovery, and the base determines when performance is corrected; sales and inventory have not improved simultaneously by relying on a low base to correct; it is only a phased restoration at the digital level.