The probability of interest rate hikes rose to 64%, Bitcoin fluctuated 78,000, and HYPE bucked the trend and rose 4%

According to Woofun AI, rising macro-austerity expectations are reshaping the crypto market pattern. Although the price of Bitcoin (Bitcoin) remains stable at the $78,000 mark, macroeconomic pressure is already beginning to appear, and only a few assets such as HYPE bucked the trend.

Bitcoin prices remained above $78,400 when the Asian market opened on Tuesday, but the volatility subsided significantly. CoinDesk data shows that its trading range has been compressed to between $77,200 and $79,200 over the past 24 hours. Looking back at August, Bitcoin recorded a 24% increase, the best monthly performance since November 2024; last week, Strategy (MSTR.US) broke about two months of silence and spent 370 million dollars to buy back Bitcoin.

However, the Altcoin market showed a fragmented trend, with HYPE being the only bright spot, rising 4% and approaching $84. In contrast, Ethereum fell to around $2,440, or about 1%; Solana hovered at $104, also down 1%. Ripple (XRP) fell below $1.40 and Binance Coin (BNB) settled around $693. The deepest declines were Tron (Tron) and Dogecoin, which both fell 2%, and the price slipped to 33 cents and 8 cents, respectively.

Traditional financial markets are also affected by macroeconomic sentiment. The Hang Seng Index fell 1% to 25,300 points, and Tencent (TCEHY.US) shares fell nearly 3%. The Nikkei Index fell to 66,185 points, while the Korea Composite Index rose slightly due to the recovery in the semiconductor sector. On the geopolitical side, the US military's actions in the Strait of Hormuz boosted the price of Brent crude oil by 1% to 91 US dollars/barrel, which in turn affected interest rate trends. The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds climbed to 4.78%. Market focus turned to the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on September 16, and the probability of interest rate hikes has surged from 36% to 64% after Kevin Walsh's speech at Jackson Hole. Gold pulled back to $4,435 per ounce after rising 10% in August.

According to data compiled by Woofun AI, ARP Digital partner Yusuf Fahro pointed out that Bitcoin was able to stabilize at $78,000 after a 23% surge, and unclosed contracts fell to a low level since May, indicating that the August market was driven by spot rather than leveraged bulls.

However, the flow of funds has changed: after nine consecutive trading days of net inflows, there was an outflow of $202 million on Friday, after the US Bitcoin spot ETF had the strongest week of demand since October 2025, and Bitcoin was then blocked at the $82,000 mark.

Wintermute OTC trader Jasper DeMarais said that the market is currently tense and lacks clear direction in the short term. The August employment data released on Friday will be a key weather vane ahead of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in September. As the probability of a rate hike is close to two-thirds, if the employment data falls short of expectations, the yield could soar further, forcing Bitcoin to retest the previous night's low of $77,200. This is a severe stress test for the market's pricing of risky assets following tightening expectations of macro-liquidity tightening and strengthening.