Akeso, Inc. (HKG:9926) Analysts Are Cutting Their Estimates: Here's What You Need To Know
Investors in Akeso, Inc. (HKG:9926) had a good week, as its shares rose 5.7% to close at HK$95.35 following the release of its interim results. It was a weak result overall, with Akeso reporting CN¥1.8b in revenues, which was 24% less than what the analysts had expected. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Akeso after the latest results.
After the latest results, the 21 analysts covering Akeso are now predicting revenues of CN¥4.56b in 2026. If met, this would reflect a substantial 32% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 91% to CN¥0.10. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CN¥4.98b and losses of CN¥0.073 per share in 2026. So it's pretty clear the analysts have mixed opinions on Akeso after this update; revenues were downgraded and per-share losses expected to increase.
See our latest analysis for Akeso
The average price target was broadly unchanged at HK$163, perhaps implicitly signalling that the weaker earnings outlook is not expected to have a long-term impact on the valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Akeso, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at HK$226 and the most bearish at HK$127 per share. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. The analysts are definitely expecting Akeso's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 75% annualised growth to the end of 2026 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 29% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 21% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Akeso is expected to grow much faster than its industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to note is the forecast of increased losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at Akeso. They also downgraded Akeso's revenue estimates, but industry data suggests that it is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Akeso analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.
You can also see our analysis of Akeso's Board and CEO remuneration and experience, and whether company insiders have been buying stock.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.