China Mengniu Dairy Company Limited Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models
China Mengniu Dairy Company Limited (HKG:2319) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 2.3% to HK$18.38 in the week after its latest half-yearly results. It was a pretty mixed result, with revenues beating expectations to hit CN¥45b. Statutory earnings fell 7.3% short of analyst forecasts, reaching CN¥0.61 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on China Mengniu Dairy after the latest results.
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from China Mengniu Dairy's 25 analysts is for revenues of CN¥88.4b in 2026. This would reflect a satisfactory 3.4% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to jump 156% to CN¥1.24. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CN¥86.5b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥1.28 in 2026. Overall it looks as though the analysts were a bit mixed on the latest results. Although there was a a satisfactory to revenue, the consensus also made a minor downgrade to its earnings per share forecasts.
View our latest analysis for China Mengniu Dairy
The consensus price target was unchanged at HK$23.10, suggesting the business is performing roughly in line with expectations, despite some adjustments to profit and revenue forecasts. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic China Mengniu Dairy analyst has a price target of HK$28.72 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at HK$18.24. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. One thing stands out from these estimates, which is that China Mengniu Dairy is forecast to grow faster in the future than it has in the past, with revenues expected to display 7.0% annualised growth until the end of 2026. If achieved, this would be a much better result than the 1.0% annual decline over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 5.0% per year. Not only are China Mengniu Dairy's revenues expected to improve, it seems that the analysts are also expecting it to grow faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for China Mengniu Dairy. Happily, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and are forecasting them to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for China Mengniu Dairy going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for China Mengniu Dairy that you should be aware of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.