The industrial software winner of the AI infrastructure frenzy has surfaced: participating in the entire life cycle of the “AI factory” opens up Autodesk (ADSK.US) valuation space

The Zhitong Finance App learned that the stock price of industrial software giant ADSK.US (ADSK.US), which focuses on 3D design, engineering project planning, and digital content software platforms, fell about 4% in early US stock trading on Friday. The second-quarter results previously announced by the company exceeded expectations, but Wall Street analysts agree that market concerns about the recent acquisition of MaintainX may explain the reason for the fall in stock prices.

Autodesk's revenue for the second quarter of fiscal year 2027 reached US$2,046 billion, up 16% year on year, higher than market expectations of US$2.01 billion; adjusted earnings per share were US$3.30, higher than the forecast of US$3.12, free cash flow increased 24% year over year to US$561 million, bill amount increased 10% to US$1,854 million, and the non-GAAP operating margin increased by 2 percentage points to 41%. In terms of market-focused performance forecasts, the company raised its full-year revenue guidance to US$8.295 billion to US$8.345 billion and bill amount guidance to US$8.575 billion to US$8.650 billion, and expected adjusted earnings per share of US$12.52 to US$12.60 and free cash flow of US$2,725 billion to US$2,750 million.

However, MaintainX was still unprofitable when it was acquired. Its annual cost balance and transaction fees of approximately $45 million increased short-term profit uncertainty, causing the stock price to fall by about 4% before the market after the performance exceeded expectations. Both Morgan Stanley and J.P. Morgan Chase maintain “overweight” ratings and target prices of $315 and $336, reflecting Wall Street's belief that this pullback is mainly due to merger and acquisition consolidation noise, rather than deterioration in Autodesk's core business or long-term profit margin repair logic. As of the beginning of the US stock market on Friday, Autodesk's stock price was hovering around $260.

Autodesk benefits from the global boom in AI applications

Autodesk is the world's leading 3D design, engineering and digital content software platform. Its main business covers the three major industrial clusters of architecture, engineering, construction and operation, product design and manufacturing, and media and entertainment. The four major product families include construction, engineering, construction and operation solutions, AutoCAD and AutoCAD LT, manufacturing solutions, and media and entertainment software.

Products such as AutoCAD, Revit, Civil 3D, Fusion, Inventor, Maya, 3ds Max, Autodesk Construction Cloud, and Tandem serve architects, engineers, construction contractors, real estate and infrastructure owners, industrial manufacturers, equipment operation and maintenance teams, film and television special effects and game production companies; MaintainX further extends Autodesk's business boundaries from design and construction to AI factories, AI computing power infrastructure construction, and Workflow management and routine maintenance and operation of important physical assets after operation. For large-scale “AI factories” where the global construction process is in full swing, Autodesk's flagship 3D design software covers early factory design and simulated construction processes, and MaintainX mainly complements maintenance and operation after operation.

As AI agents focusing on agent-based workflows such as ChatGPT, Claude, and even OpenClaw take the world by storm, Autodesk can be described as an industrial software layer beneficiary of the global AI application boom, but it is not a direct beneficiary of Nvidia-style computing capital expenditure: its artificial intelligence value mainly comes from generative design, natural language operation, construction risk prediction, automatic drawing, simulation optimization, and digital twins. The capabilities behind these comprehensive AI models can improve customer productivity, strengthen subscription stickiness, and support higher value software combinations.

The equipment history, inspection records, maintenance models and actual operation data brought by MaintainX can connect Tandem's digital twins with predictive maintenance, intelligent work orders, and proxy automation to form a closed loop of physical industry data of “early design - mid-term construction - post-operation”; its investment value is that artificial intelligence drives the expansion of customer unit prices, cross-sales, and serviceable markets, while the main risk is that MaintainX's integration costs, short-term profit dilution, and commercialization of artificial intelligence functions fall short of expectations.

Wall Street's latest opinion: Autodesk's profit margin still needs to be improved after MaintainX's acquisition

Morgan Stanley analyst Elizabeth Porter said in an investor report released on Friday: “Autodesk handed over a solid fundamentals second quarter results for the second quarter of fiscal year 2027. Revenue, earnings per share, and free cash flow were all higher than expected; however, the inclusion of MaintainX has added disruptive factors to the recent outlook, which may put pressure on stock prices.”

Morgan Stanley maintains an “overweight” rating and a target price of $315 for the stock.

Porter added: “In addition to the second quarter results, we expect the focus of market discussions to shift to growth in the 2028 fiscal year. At that time, Autodesk will surpass the year-on-year gain brought by the transaction model, but will benefit from improved sales efficiency and MaintainX's contribution to the full fiscal year's performance. We estimate that the company's core business exit growth rate in the fourth quarter was about 11%, plus MaintainX's conservative contribution of 2 percentage points in fiscal year 2028, which means that about 13% can be a steady starting point for next year's growth rate; if cross-selling, channel, and geographical synergy among corporate customers becomes apparent earlier than expected, there is still room for growth.”

At the same time, J.P. Morgan also maintained an “overweight” rating and a target price of $336.

J.P. Morgan analyst Alexey Gogolev said in a report: “The company clearly anticipates that although MaintainX's annual costs will be fully accounted for — and MaintainX was not profitable when the transaction was completed, and the primary focus of the consolidation effort is to maintain its growth rate — the 2028 non-US GAAP profit margin will still improve slightly from around 39%, which means that the profit margin target of 41% for FY2029 is still intact.”

Gogolev added, “The median value of the 2027 fiscal year revenue guidance after the increase was US$8.320 billion, which is about 1% higher than Wall Street's previous agreed expectations; this increase was not only driven by increased expectations for basic business growth, but also included MaintainX's contribution.”

Autodesk's acquisition of MaintainX aims to enhance the company's ability to connect operational workflows to the broader asset lifecycle and help teams make faster, more informed decisions over time. The software giant bought MaintainX for $3.6 billion in cash to strengthen its Autodesk operational solutions business. The deal was completed on August 3.

Autodesk CEO Andrew Anagnost said in an earnings call on Thursday evening: “Integrating design and construction data in Tandem can create a digital twin that evolves simultaneously with the physical assets it represents. Looking forward to the future, solutions such as MaintainX will extend this digital mainline from recording systems to mobile systems, connecting digital twins to daily operational workflows and real-world operating performance. This isn't an isolated application deployment, but a broader shift we're seeing: asset owners are moving beyond the digitization phase of projects to generating project intelligence throughout the asset lifecycle.”