Zhitong Hong Kong Stock Exchange Unravels | The script for Walsh's speech has been written. What is the impact of the introduction of the latest real estate policy?
[Anatomy Dashboard]
The market is speculating on expectations. At present, everyone thinks it will move in a positive direction. Hong Kong stocks rose slightly by 0.07% today.
Tonight, the world's eyes are on Federal Reserve Chairman Walsh's speech in Jackson Hole, because the US is currently in a very critical period, and the Treasury has already made enough efforts. Now it's time to look at the Fed's actions. Bank of America predicted in the August 28 “Flow Show” report: The “success script” of Walsh's speech was to flatten the yield curve in the bull market — that is, anchor the short end by releasing credible hawkish signals about inflation, and release dovish hints on long-term bonds to support the Treasury's treasury bond repurchase plan. Personally, I think this statement is quite reliable. Because, if he can't cover up his treasury bonds after putting it on, he'll have to carry this mess.
The capital market is also betting on this script. Spot gold returned to 4,600 US dollars, and spot silver broke through 70 US dollars, breaking a new high since June 17. China Gold International (02099) rose nearly 8%, while Wanguo Gold International (03939), Chifeng Gold (06693), and Zijin Gold International (02259) all rose more than 3%.
Yesterday, Nvidia used its own efforts to strengthen technology and hardware, but today's hardware has not continued, and market concerns are still there. Back to the old question, which is whether AI can continue to burn money. The good part is that the software is up. US stocks closed, and IGV (North American Technology Software ETF) surged 7.7% to a new high since 2026. Salesforce, CrowdStrke, and Okta collectively surpassed expectations, driving the market from trading “AI devours software” to repricing “AI amplifies the value of high-quality software platforms.” This side also caught up in time. The Maifushi (02556) mentioned yesterday was once again 4%, and Meitu (01357), the group's fermentation: it has embarked on its own path of making money on the AI application side. For example, Meitu Xiuxiu has found people who are willing to pay: make pictures and videos, mainly to sell goods, gain customers, increase popularity, or complete a job. The product matrix is all making money: ARR, AI creation tools such as Kickoff, Vmake, and MVLAND have been drastically doubled, AI computing power consumption continues to increase, ARPPU (single user paid value) has increased, and users are willing to pay a premium for AI functions. By the end of June, Meitu had more than 18.44 million paid subscribers, including 16.09 million paid subscribers for lifestyle apps, up 18.8% year on year; 2.35 million paid subscribers for productivity apps, up 29.8% year on year. Meitu currently has a global MAU of 282 million, and the market outside of mainland China is stable at over 100 million. Overseas growth was even more rapid. In the first half of the year, Meitu's overseas paid subscribers grew at about twice the rate of mainland China. The new paid users mainly came from high ARPPU regions such as East Asia, Latin America, and Europe; MAU for productivity applications in markets other than mainland China increased by more than 80% year-on-year. Today it is up more than 6%. Other varieties of Kingdee International (00268) and Paradigm Intelligence (06682) also rose more than 6%; Zhitong Gold Stock China Software International (00354) rose nearly 4% in August.
Monitoring by the National Climate Center shows that it has begun to monitor the strong El Niño event in July, and the probability of a strong El Niño event is increasing. The impact of this incident on agricultural products is increasing. Reviewing history, bananas, sugar, and palm oil generally cut production during the El Niño period and drove up prices; the extent to which corn and cotton were impacted depends on the intensity of the incident. The rise in the agricultural index during the 2014-2016 El Niño period was mainly driven by pig farming. According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, by the end of the second quarter of this year, the number of breeding sows nationwide had dropped to 37.8 million, a year-on-year decrease of 2.63 million heads, and the reduction in pig production capacity was accelerated. The agency expects that the pig breeding industry may gradually enter the sow super hunt stage in the third quarter of 2026, which will drive a reversal in the 2027 pig cycle. Dekang Agriculture and Animal Husbandry (02419)'s semi-annual report performance losses are mainly due to pig prices being too low. Since August, pig prices have continued to pick up above 11 yuan/kg for many days, with a cumulative increase of over 7.54% from the beginning of the month. On the cost side, the company's full cost of commercial pigs in the first half of this year was 11.89 yuan/kg, down about 0.6 yuan/kg year on year. The total cost and profitability remained leading in the industry, and single head loss was superior to that of peers. As long as pork prices rose, the performance elasticity of Dekang Agriculture and Animal Husbandry increased by nearly 7% today. Muyuan Co., Ltd. (02714), a leading integrated company, signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Alibaba Cloud to jointly build a large vertical model for the pig farming industry. Today's increase is over 4%.
Today, the Ministry of Housing, Urban-Rural Development, the Ministry of Natural Resources, and the General Administration of Financial Supervision jointly issued the “Notice on Improving the Commercial Housing Sales System”. There are several key points: 1. Pre-sale threshold: pre-sale projects must be capped with a single main structure; 2. Capital supervision: all down payments and mortgages go into supervisory accounts, and loans are unlocked only after they have been completed; 3. Priority is given to existing housing sales for new land concessions, and projects that have already acquired uncertified land are encouraged. This means that real estate will say goodbye to the financialized property market. From rapid expansion into an era of improving inventory quality, the increase in new homes will decline in the future, which will play a key role in stabilizing real estate prices. What is most obvious is that the risk of unfinished business has been drastically eliminated, which is beneficial to large, high-quality housing enterprises in the long run. Looking at short-term flexibility, existing homes with large debts of private housing enterprises are more cost-effective. The relevant individual stocks, Yiju Enterprise Holdings (02048), surged nearly 58%, and Zhongliang Holdings (02772) and Sunac China (01918) all surged by more than 10%. As for construction machinery related to real estate, only Zhitong's gold stock China Longgong (03339) came out in August. The reason was that the stock avoided internal excavators and went for loaders with higher demand. The growth rate was also very strong. Today, it once again surged more than 8%.
Consumption direction is mainly food and beverages. Gu Ming (01364): Adjusted core profit increased by more than 50% year on year in the first half of the year, up more than 5% today; Ming Ming is very busy (01768) As a leader in the domestic snack market, the “deep sinking+double brand+strong supply chain” business model has deep barriers. Over the past 26 years, store expansion has exceeded expectations, and the scale effect has led to an improvement in profitability. Today's increase is over 4%. Yihai International (01579): Results for the first half of the year fully exceeded expectations. Related party business resumed growth, and third-party overseas and B-side businesses continued to grow rapidly. The proposed cash dividend for the first half of the year was 376 million yuan, with a dividend ratio of 100%, and dividend returns are highly deterministic. Today, it has risen more than 4%.
The schedule for Apple and Huawei's new product launches this fall has been decided. Among them, the Apple press conference is scheduled for the early morning of September 10, Beijing time, and the Huawei fall product launch is scheduled for September 7. Bi-themed BYD Electronics (00285): By superimposing the liquid cooling concept, the liquid cooling penetration rate of the company's AI chips is expected to rise from about 33% in 2025 to 53% in 2026, and close to 60% in 2027, up more than 6% today.
On August 6, the eight major domestic silicon leaders (GCL, Tongwei, Daquan, Xinte Energy, etc.) signed an anti-roll proposal, agreeing that the selling price should not fall below the full cost and strictly control backward production capacity. Spot prices continued to be repaired in late August: the price of granular silicon rebounded from the July low of 31-33 yuan/kg to 39-40 yuan/kg, which just covered the full cost of GCL Technology (03800) (38-41 yuan/kg). The cash cost was only 24-26 yuan/kg, and the profit inflection point directly appeared. End of the situation and start profit recovery cycle. GCL Technology rose more than 6%.
According to reports, the price increase of ordinary electronic cloth clearly continued in September, and the 7628 increase continued at least 1.5 yuan/meter. At the same time, the price of Jiantao FR-4 increased by 10%, the price of semi-cured tablets with thick cloth of 7628 and above was increased by 10%, and the price of semi-cured tablets with thin cloth below 7628 increased by 20%. Jiantao (01888) once again rose by nearly 3%. However, the actual controller of PCB leader Shenghong Technology (02476) suddenly transferred nearly half of the indirect holdings to the spouse. Although nothing changed, the market feared that the future might pave the way for cash out, and today it plummeted by nearly 13%. Together with the Chipboard Micropack (09630), it also fell by more than 8%.
[Section Focus]
From 2025 to 2028, the total power consumption of US data centers will increase from 9.9 GW to 110 GW. AIDC will account for 12% of the US electricity consumption in 2027, and more than half of all new AIDCs will use their own power supplies after 2028; the Trump administration requires large AI companies to build their own power plants; Amazon plans to build 7.65 GW gas and power plants; GEV reports that new orders of 20.1 GW will increase 65% year-on-year, with on-hand orders of US$111.6 billion; Jerry Co., Ltd. has accumulated more than 111.6 billion US dollars since November 2025 Of the $3.1 billion order, a new $1,465 billion order was signed in July 2026, and we are currently optimistic about opportunities for the domestic gas turbine industry chain driven by North America's AIDC power gap to go overseas. Overseas leading orders are backlogged, and production capacity is seriously insufficient. The supply gap has created a historic entry window for leading domestic gas turbine integrators and core component suppliers, and orders and performance are entering a period of accelerated fulfillment.
Major Hong Kong stock products: Weichai Power (02338), CIMC Group (02039), Shanghai Electric (02727).
[Individual Stock Mining]
Xirui (02507): Aircraft deliveries continue to grow, and order reserves are full
Xirui announced interim results, with revenue of US$737 million for the first half of the year, up 24.0% year on year; profit for the period was US$88 million, up 35.6% year on year. During the reporting period, the company delivered a total of 405 aircraft, up 15.7% year on year, including 348 SR series and 57 SF Vision jets, up 26.7% year on year, up 43 and 12, respectively.
Comment: Xirui continues to improve aircraft production and delivery capabilities. The delivery growth rate is significantly higher than the industry average, profitability is increasing at an accelerated pace, and the net interest rate is expanding significantly. As the world's best-selling high-performance single-engine piston aircraft, the company was one of the first companies in the world to use the Safe Return emergency automatic landing system, and has equipped more than 600 “Vision” jets with this system. The advantages of the Xirui brand are evident, and the share advantage is expected to progress steadily, confirming both orders and delivery. The company's core product, the SR2X series, has been the number one sales volume in the world for 22 consecutive years, accounting for 51-52% of the sales market and over 65% of the sales volume market, monopolizing the global high-end single-engine private jet market. The Vision Jet has been the number one selling light private jet in the world for many years.
Product Matrix: Covering the middle and high-end markets, the SR2X series focuses on Volkswagen private flights (average price US$1.14 million). Vision jets target high-end demand (average price US$3.48 million), and the new SR G7+ product launched in May 2025 further enhances safety and intelligent configuration. The company is deeply involved in the private jet sector, mainly targeting C-end customers, and the price of its products has continued to increase in recent years. The order reserve is full, and the delivery schedule is close to two years, and the longest schedule for Vision Jets is close to three years. As of June 30, 2026, the total number of orders was 1,059, and 398 new orders were added in the first half of 2026, a significant increase of 65% over the previous year; the growth was driven by the popularity of the SR G7+, the new Vision Jet G3, and the TRAC-10 trainer models, and the increase in batch procurement by aviation schools was significant. As the number of high-net-worth individuals increases, the regional market expands, technological innovation enhances flight experience, and policy support promotes industry development, the private aviation market is expected to usher in rapid development, and the company's performance is expected to maintain rapid growth.