Goldman Sachs: Gulf oil exports have rebounded significantly from the March low, but are only about two-thirds of pre-war levels

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Goldman Sachs estimated in a research report released on Thursday that total oil exports from the Gulf region have recovered to about 15 million to 16 million b/d, marking a significant rebound in oil exports from the trough period of the conflict, although it is still far below pre-war levels. According to estimates obtained by Goldman Sachs using two independent methods, the current export volume is 7 million to 8 million b/d lower than before the outbreak of the war between the US and Israel with Iraq, but 5 million to 6 million b/d higher than the March low.

Although Goldman Sachs's overall data focuses on total traffic in the Gulf region rather than specifically on the transit volume of the Strait of Hormuz, the bank pointed out that the recovery in export volume means that traffic volume in the strait itself may be close to the range of 8 million to 10 million barrels per day previously estimated by US officials. Since the conflict disrupted normal shipping at the end of February, this critical waterway, which carries about one-fifth of the world's daily marine oil and liquefied natural gas supply, has experienced a remarkable but not complete recovery.

Goldman Sachs attributed this recovery in part to adapting measures taken by producers and shipping companies amid ongoing turmoil. The Goldman Sachs report specifically mentioned the increase in clandestine shipping (that is, professional shippers crossing the border with reduced transponder visibility) and ship-to-ship transfers, indicating that market participants have adjusted their logistics strategies to maintain crude oil flow in high-risk environments.

Goldman Sachs also said that in a situation where supply disruptions in the Middle East continue, there is still more room for price increases for European gas and long-term petroleum product contracts than crude oil prices themselves. This view suggests that Goldman Sachs believes that the more lasting pressure brought about by the conflict will be concentrated in the downstream industrial chain and related energy markets rather than crude oil itself — this adaptive shipping behavior supports the crude oil market to a certain extent.

On Thursday, the price of Brent crude oil futures for October delivery closed at $89.70 per barrel, up 2.12%, ending the previous three consecutive trading days of decline. Earlier, it was reported that the Trump administration has no intention of re-accepting the terms of the memorandum of understanding reached with Iran in June this year. The original plan of the June agreement was to ease sanctions, allow Iran to obtain frozen funds from overseas, etc., to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and begin negotiations on the nuclear issue and ending the war, but it broke down a few weeks later when Iran attacked ships.

Gulf export data is gradually picking up, compounding the cooling of the market's expectations for resolving the Iran issue through diplomatic channels in the short term. Together, they outline the core contradiction in the current oil market: the supply side is gradually recovering, but the geopolitical and military conflict is far from over.