BTC trading sideways at 78,000: Expansion is blocked due to the absence of US investors, and a spot restart is required

According to Woofun AI, CryptoQuant analyst GugaonChain pointed out that Bitcoin has recently reached a sideways impasse, and neither long nor short have been able to form an overwhelming advantage, causing the market to lack clear direction guidance.

This stagnation is not an accident; it is a direct reflection of deep capital structural imbalances. The core contradiction is the significant lack of spot demand in the US, making it difficult for prices to break through key resistance levels and enter a new upward cycle.

Judging from the technical side and the deep logic of on-chain data, Bitcoin's current price is around $78,419, and this price level projects complex signals in the Delta-Thermo Market Multiples (DTMM) indicator.

According to data compiled by Woofun AI, the current value of DTMM is 2.03. This indicator defines the market stage by comparing the market price with the market value. It is worth noting that although 2.03 is above the 1.5 threshold representing the fund-raising phase, indicating that the market has left the bottom accumulation zone, there is still a clear gap from the 2.5 threshold that marks the beginning of the expansion phase, which confirms that the market is in a neutral consolidation range. Further dismantling holders' behavior, the actual profit price for short-term holders is $69,371, which is lower than the current price, which means that recent entrants are generally in a state of flux, and the risk of selling is manageable.

Meanwhile, the MVRV ratio for short-term holders was 1.13, indicating that unrealized profits were low, and the market showed no signs of overheating. The financing rate, which reflects derivatives sentiment, is 0.0056 and remains at a neutral level, indicating that leveraged traders' long and short sentiment is relatively balanced, and there is no extreme speculative fanaticism. Together, these microdata outline a balanced market picture with neither large-scale fund-raising nor strong momentum for expansion.

A deeper obstacle, however, is America's lack of spot purchasing power. The Coinbase (COIN.US) premium index, which is the weather vane for demand in the US market, showed negative values on both daily and hourly levels, which directly confirms that US investors are not willing to buy actively at current prices. Historical data has repeatedly proven that the strong purchasing power of US investors is often the key engine that pushes Bitcoin out of consolidation and starts a bull market. Without this core driver, the DTMM indicator would hardly be pushed to an expansion threshold of 2.5. If the US capital continues to be absent, not only will it be difficult for the market to generate upward breakthrough momentum, but it may also face the risk of retracement due to accumulated selling pressure.

This structural flaw makes the current sideways trading situation vulnerable, and any negative external position could trigger a downward repricing.

Based on the above analysis, the strategic level needs to be adjusted accordingly. For traders, given the lack of clear trend momentum, using range trading strategies is superior to trend following strategies to avoid the risk of misjudgment in direction. Long-term investors can pay attention to the non-overheated state revealed by the ratio of short-term holders' actual earnings price to MVRV. If the market retracts, it may constitute a potential layout opportunity. At the macro level, the Fed's policy trends and regulatory policy changes are still key variables affecting spot demand. Although on-chain data has reference value, it is only part of the overall market picture. Bitcoin is expected to continue to fluctuate in its current position until spot demand substantially picks up, and participants need to be highly vigilant.