Zhitong Hong Kong Stock Exchange Unravels | Nvidia Saves Technology Stocks “Bull Lai” Big Model to Drive Domestic Autonomy and Control
[Anatomy Dashboard]
The trend in the global market is quite fragmented. US stocks all fell overnight, and Hong Kong stocks also fell 0.34% today, but the trend of A-shares is quite strong, and there is a slight “rise and west” flavor.
As I said yesterday, the Middle East issue will be repeated. The critical strait issue is unlikely to be restarted, because the US is also unlikely to meet Iran's conditions, and the US sanctions have all been used, and I don't feel like they are of any use. Moreover, the secret visit of the US Chinese intelligence chief to Russia to pressure Iran did not seem to have been achieved.
America's current debt problem worries the world. As a share of GDP, the size of America's “double deficit” (current account deficit plus budget deficit) exceeds that of all large emerging markets and developed economies except Brazil. Be wary of its transmission effects. High debt pressure has already sparked calls for cancellation of some public debt in France.
What's even more incredible is that on August 26, local time, Trump signed Executive Order No. 14420, declaring a state of emergency in the US, prohibiting the acquisition, import, transfer, and installation of power equipment design/manufactured/supplied by regulated foreign entities in the US high-capacity power system (bulk-power system, transmission and related equipment), and authorized the Department of Energy to quarantine, monitor, and even replace existing overseas equipment. The target is clear to everyone. The problem is that the US energy has now entered a state of crisis, and they are still making it out, and they don't know what to think. Aren't they stuck in their own neck? Or are you playing chips again? Although Weisheng Holdings (03393) does not account for a large share of the American business, the emotional impact is still significant. Today, it fell by more than 13%. Not only related power equipment, but the share of the North American business is shaking today. For example, Minshi Group (00425) has dropped more than 7%, and Shenzhou International (02313) has also dropped significantly in recent days.
From the above events, it can be seen that the power game is a long-term process, and all kinds of unpredictable downsides will pop up from time to time. Therefore, sticking to domestic autonomy and control is the right direction. Yesterday's section focused on wafer manufacturing Huahong (01347) once again rose by more than 4%, and SMIC (00981) rose more than 2%.
There are only two hopes for US stocks: Nvidia for hardware, and OpenAI and Anthropic for software. From this perspective, Nvidia must not fail. Earnings must be effective. The so-called “medicine cannot be stopped”. The same is true: revenue for the second fiscal quarter reached 96.2 billion US dollars, an increase of 106% over the previous year, higher than market expectations. Among them, data center business revenue was approximately US$89 billion, up 117% year over year. However, now market requirements are getting higher and higher. If there is a flaw, the month-on-month growth rate is about 12% lower than the previous quarter's 18%, and the Q3 gross margin guide is lower than the market's most optimistic expectations. As a result, it was still down yesterday, but it was soon fixed: revenue for the third fiscal quarter is expected to be about 108 billion US dollars, and it is rare to give an early forecast for the 2028 fiscal year. The annual revenue is expected to increase by about 70% year on year, which is significantly higher than the previous market forecast of about 45%. Additionally, it was emphasized that Amazon promised to significantly increase the adoption of Nvidia products. Also, Hwang In-hoon once again denounces “circular financing” and questioned: the AI industry requires huge amounts of capital, and the associated risks are very low. That dispelled concerns. The latest pre-market increase was over 7%.
Speaking of whether Nvidia can meet this target as expected, Huang Renxun said, there is a possibility that production capacity will be insufficient. For example, whether HBM memory can get that many products, Kioxia and SanDisk plan to invest 31 billion US dollars to expand memory manufacturing plants in Japan, highlighting tight production capacity. GigaYi Innovation (03986) has increased more than 7%, Lanqi Technology (06809) has increased by more than 12%; in addition, TSMC's advanced packaging production capacity has also reached the upper limit. Other factors include power supply, computer rooms, and cooling from cloud manufacturers.
Anyway, Nvidia's earnings report saved the technology, and it was officially announced at the conference: Vera Rubin is in full production and shipping began earlier this month. The company anticipates that Vera Rubin will contribute about 20% of data center business revenue in the third quarter, corresponding to a revenue opportunity of approximately $40 billion for each gigawatt of computing power deployed. Major hyperscale cloud vendors, AI cloud, and system OEMs have placed purchase orders, and Rubin is expected to become the fastest climbing product in Nvidia's history. Rubin's core increase compared to the previous generation GB series cabinet: 1. PCB, the value increased by 233%, adding 18 44-layer midplane boards and 72 ConnectX module PCBs per cabinet; the computing board was upgraded from layer 22 to layer 26, the switching board was raised from the 24th layer to the 32nd layer, and the material was upgraded from M7 to M8. Leading Jiantao laminated board (01888) rose more than 10%, Shenghong Technology (02476) and Dazu CNC (03200) rose more than 6%; 2. Rubin large-scale cluster cabinets were interconnected, making extensive use of high-end special optical fibers; Changfei Optical Fiber (06869) increased by more than 10%, Huiju Technology (01729) increased by more than 6%; 3. Liquid cooling increased in value by 12%. Rubin is Nvidia's first 100% liquid cooling platform. Liquid cooling changed from increased permeability to mandatory standard. Related individual stocks, Hongteng Precision (06088), rose more than 5%; 4. The usage of optical modules and MLCC also increased dramatically, with Cambridge Technology (06166) rising by more than 5% and Sanhuan Group (06951) by more than 4%.
AI model direction. Recently, a new anonymous model codenamed Ox Alpha (known as “Niulai” in the Chinese community) quickly became popular overseas after the launch of OpenRouter (the world's leading large-scale API aggregation platform) and OpenCode (open source AI programming assistant platform). The third-party evaluation score was compared to Claude Opus 4.8; the number of test calls on overseas platforms exceeded twice that of DeepSeek, setting a new platform traffic record. The export price is 2.8 yuan/million tokens, which is one-tenth of its flagship GLM-5.3, and the overseas export price is 0.5 US dollars, which is one-fifth of Claude Opus 4.8 ($25). At the time, some people speculated that it was Smart Spectrum (02513), but there was no confirmation. On August 26, the company officially claimed and officially launched the open source GLM-5.3-Flash. It was reported that GLM-5.3 Flash used a cluster of over 100,000 domestic chips. The supply side may involve Huawei, Moore Thread, and Haiguang Information. These chips are connected through self-developed high-bandwidth internet networks, and today they have surged more than 12%. The drop in token prices is a big positive stimulus for the scenario, Maifushi (02556), which is paying for tokens. Today, with the popularity of domestic models, demand for hardware continues to rise, Bijiao Technology (06082) has completed the inference verification of the Smart Spectrum GLM-5.3-Flash model, which has increased by more than 7%; Tianshu Smartchip (09903) has increased by more than 10%.
Innovative drugs continued to be catalyzed by performance, and Hanson Pharmaceuticals (03692)'s performance was quite explosive: revenue of 8.304 billion yuan, up 11.7% year on year, profit surged 35.8%, and revenue of innovative drugs reached a record high of 7.092 billion yuan, accounting for 85.4%. Specifically, tumors are still a stable “ballast stone”. The tumor sector's revenue in the first half of the year was 5.473 billion yuan, accounting for 65.9% of total revenue; the non-tumor sector also bid farewell to the position of supporting actors, and metabolism, autoimmunity, neurological, and nephropathy are also creating a second growth engine outside of tumors. Going overseas has also evolved from simple asset sales to a more flexible and diverse cooperation model such as NewCo to achieve “authorized cooperation+independent registration”. Today, it has surged more than 16%. The positive news from Kang Fang Biotech (09926) mentioned yesterday: it was announced that the world's first PD-1/VEGF bispecific antibody (trade name: Edafang®), which it independently developed, achieved significant success in the Harmoni-GI1 (AK112-309) phase III clinical study. Yang Junjian, senior PR director of Kang Fang Biotech, said that based on the positive results of the Phase III study, the company will proceed with the marketing application process for related new drugs as soon as possible. In other words, commercialization is approaching; today it has risen by more than 7%.
[Section Focus]
The China Coal Distribution and Marketing Association published an article stating that judging from the intensity of the rise and decline in coking coal prices over the years, the overall price of coking coal in September was easy to rise and difficult to fall. The nine institutions' predictions for the coking coal market for September 2026 are generally bullish. The quantitative mean of the assessment intensity model is 1.017, which is the highest assessed month since 2026. The Coking Coal Special Committee of the China Coal Distribution and Marketing Association suggests that the forecast for the coking coal market in September is highly consistent and tight, and all market participants should be wary of possible changes in the market under consistent expectations. There was a sudden change in Mongolian coal supply in August, which gave an upward impetus to the coking coal market. The market trend was stronger than institutional expectations.
Main varieties: Yankuang Energy (01171), Power Development (01277), MONGOL MINING (00975), China Coal Energy (01898), China Shenhua (01088).
[Individual Stock Mining]
Baiosaitu-B (02315): Excellent net profit performance, many of its dual-resistance ADCs went overseas
The company released its 2026 interim results, achieving revenue of 941 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 51.6%; net profit to mother of 241 million yuan, +402.29% year-on-year; net profit of 197 million yuan, +591.53% year-on-year gross profit of 746 million yuan, up 61.6% from the same period last year, and overall gross margin increased from 74.4% to 79.3%. Operating profit for the same period was 305 million yuan, and the operating profit margin was about 32.4%.
Comment: The company's net profit performance in the interim report was impressive. Net profit for half a year exceeded net profit for the full year of 2025, and gross margin rose steadily. The company's innovative strength was once again recognized, and up to five whole-human bispecific antibodies will be provided through its self-developed RenLite® platform. renMice® whole-human antibody technology has welcomed an important upgrade. Whitehawk can then choose to include the resulting bsADC candidate molecules into its pipeline and advance development. The company has its own SUPCE large fragment chromosome engineering technology, replaced mouse antibody genes in situ, and built a full range of renMice mouse platforms. It is one of the few companies in the world that also has the ability to develop a full set of whole-human antibody mice. There are 5000+ gene-editing models in stock, including targeting 2000+ humanized mice; our own 55,000-square-meter animal breeding center, large-scale mass production, with advantages in delivery speed and cost; the “Thousand Mouse Antibodies” program has completed a library of over 1 million whole-human antibody molecules.
With a global high-end layout, the company accounts for about 68% of the company's overseas revenue; the penetration rate of the top 20 global pharmaceutical companies exceeds 90%, and the core customers are multinational pharmaceutical companies and leading Biotech companies such as Merck, Johnson & Johnson, Gilead, and BeiGene. External licensing continues to be heavily implemented, and the company has signed more than 350 antibody cooperation/licensing agreements; representative large-scale transactions: cooperating with IDEAYA on the dual-antibody ADC project, with a potential total transaction scale of nearly 3 billion yuan; successively reaching global antibody licenses with Merck, Tubulis, and BeiGene in Germany. A large number of projects are advancing clinical trials one after another, and milestone revenue will continue to be released in the future. The company's orders are mainly continuous renewal framework orders, which rely on the steady growth of global pharmaceutical companies' continuous target verification demand.
While providing model services to obtain stable cash flow, Baiosetu built its own massive antibody shelves for external licensing. If Molecule is successfully listed, it continues to receive a share of sales over a long period of time, and its performance has the potential to continue to explode. The company's bispecific antibodies, ADCs, nanoantibodies, and new intracellular target drugs are the hottest biopharmaceutical racetrack in the world, and the platform perfectly matches R&D needs. The company's model animal and preclinical CRO business has continued to maintain a strong growth trend over the years, and has established deep and close partnerships with the world's leading innovative pharmaceutical companies. High barriers are compounded by industry dividends, and the share is expected to continue to rise. The company launched RenSuper, a next-generation AI platform, to achieve intelligent and automated antibody screening, significantly improving efficiency, and accelerating the implementation of the AI+renMice platform antibody business. The company's financial report greatly exceeded expectations, overseas BD continued to be implemented, cooperative pipelines entered clinical verification, and profit inflection points were confirmed.