According to the CITIC Construction Investment Research Report, the equatorial Pacific Ocean has accelerated markedly since August. NOAA's latest weekly data shows that during the week of August 12, the abnormal temperature of Niño 3.4 had already risen to +2.7 ℃, continuing to rise rapidly compared to about +1.7 ℃ at the beginning of July; during the same period, Niño 3 reached +3.2 ℃, and Niño 1+2 reached +4.0 ℃. NOAA recently determined that the probability of a “very strong El Niño” appearing in the fall and winter of 2026 is over 90%. Strong El Niño usually disrupts food supply through droughts in Southeast Asia, India, and Australia, and abnormal precipitation in South America. Currently, overall global food prices are still relatively low, and stocks are still buffering, but weather risks are rapidly accumulating; if production cuts in major production regions gradually materialize in the next few months, supply and demand are expected to shift from “loose inventory” to “reduced production and storage,” and the upward flexibility of food prices is worth focusing on. The rise in food prices is also expected to improve global planting income and farmers' willingness to invest, and further boost demand for agricultural materials such as pesticides and fertilizers through replanting and increasing investment per unit area, and the agrochemical economy is expected to benefit.

According to the CITIC Construction Investment Research Report, the equatorial Pacific Ocean has accelerated markedly since August. NOAA's latest weekly data shows that during the week of August 12, the abnormal temperature of Niño 3.4 had already risen to +2.7 ℃, continuing to rise rapidly compared to about +1.7 ℃ at the beginning of July; during the same period, Niño 3 reached +3.2 ℃, and Niño 1+2 reached +4.0 ℃. NOAA recently determined that the probability of a “very strong El Niño” appearing in the fall and winter of 2026 is over 90%. Strong El Niño usually disrupts food supply through droughts in Southeast Asia, India, and Australia, and abnormal precipitation in South America. Currently, overall global food prices are still relatively low, and stocks are still buffering, but weather risks are rapidly accumulating; if production cuts in major production regions gradually materialize in the next few months, supply and demand are expected to shift from “loose inventory” to “reduced production and storage,” and the upward flexibility of food prices is worth focusing on. The rise in food prices is also expected to improve global planting income and farmers' willingness to invest, and further boost demand for agricultural materials such as pesticides and fertilizers through replanting and increasing investment per unit area, and the agrochemical economy is expected to benefit.