US stock outlook | The three major stock index futures had mixed ups and downs, and the Federal Reserve's “most favored inflation index” will soon be announced, and Nvidia (NVDA.US) earnings will be listed after the market

Pre-market market trends

1. Before the US stock market on August 26 (Wednesday), futures for the three major US stock indexes had mixed ups and downs. As of press release, Dow futures were up 0.06%, S&P 500 futures were down 0.06%, and NASDAQ futures were down 0.24%.

2. As of press release, the German DAX index rose 0.29%, the UK FTSE 100 index rose 0.03%, the French CAC40 index rose 0.63%, and the European Stoxx 50 index rose 0.39%.

3. As of press release, WTI crude oil fell 2.11% to $80.62 per barrel. Brent crude fell 2.02% to $85.51 per barrel.

Market news

PCE data affects interest rate expectations, and the suspense of inflation on the eve of Jackson Hole is yet to be resolved. The inflation indicator that the Federal Reserve is most concerned about, the July Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index, will be revealed at 8:30 p.m. Beijing time to provide an updated assessment of core price pressure. The market expects the overall PCE increase to fall slightly to 3.6% year on year, while the core PCE is expected to remain flat at 3.3%. The timing of this data release is sensitive. It coincides with the Federal Reserve Chairman's key speech at the Jackson Hole annual meeting. The inflation reading will provide an important reference for the market to interpret its policy position.

Iran claims that an agreement on a temporary route in the Strait of Hormuz has been reached, and only commercial ships can pass through. Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Garibabadi said that according to the new understanding between Iran and Oman on the Strait of Hormuz route, routes entering the Persian Gulf will pass through Iranian waters, and routes leaving the Persian Gulf will pass through Amman and Iranian waters. No warships will be allowed to pass through this strait; only merchant ships will be allowed to pass through this strait. Garibabadi said that the understanding between Iran and Oman does not mean the immediate opening of the Strait of Hormuz. The above traffic arrangement is a temporary measure, and the two countries will then begin negotiations to establish a new permanent route within 30 to 60 days. Also, according to the latest news, Iran and Oman have reached an agreement on income distribution in the Sea of Hormuz.

America's leading AI companies are intensively cutting prices, and the big US AI model may set off a price war to the bottom. OpenAI recently announced that the price of one of its big artificial intelligence models will be reduced by more than 20%, and the output price will drop to $20 per million words. This is the second time in less than a month that OpenAI's models have dropped in price. This isn't the first American artificial intelligence company to cut product prices recently. In the middle of this month, when Google (GOOGL.US) released the new model Gemini 3.7 Flash, it was half the price of the previous model as the initial price. Anthropic also announced earlier this month that it would cancel the original price increase plan and set the initial discount price as a permanent execution price.

SoftBank plans to issue bonds of up to $20 billion to replace OpenAI's investment bridge loans. SoftBank Group is in negotiations with a number of investment banks and plans to issue 10 billion to 20 billion US dollars in bonds. The currencies may be US dollars and euros, which will be launched as early as September. Relevant negotiations are still ongoing, and specific provisions are subject to change. The funds raised will be used in part to repay the $40 billion bridge loan obtained earlier this year to invest in OpenAI. SoftBank was founded and managed by Sun Zhengyi. The credit rating is junk. According to the plan, it needs to invest nearly 65 billion US dollars in OpenAI by October, with part of the funding coming from loans.

Amazon (AMZN.US) Apple (AAPL.US) Microsoft (MSFT.US) Dell (DELL.US) collective price increase agency predicts that global memory shortage may continue until 2027. The sharp increase in demand for AI computing power has caused the price of memory chips to rise sharply, and the pressure of upstream price increases is transmitted to downstream terminals. Recently, Amazon raised the prices of various hardware products. Before Amazon raised prices, technology companies such as Apple, Microsoft, and Dell had dealt with cost pressure by increasing product prices and reducing standard hardware memory. Market research agency IDC previously warned that the global memory shortage may continue until 2027. Industry forecasts indicate that memory chip prices may gradually fall back and stabilize after peaking in 2028.

Individual stock news

Under the torrent of token reasoning, Nvidia (NVDA.US) performance faced revolving financing torture! Markets expect Rubin to ignite the “$6 trillion” narrative. Nvidia is about to announce its second-quarter results. Analysts expect Nvidia's Q2 adjusted earnings per share to be $2.09 billion, with revenue of about $92 billion, up 96% year over year. Among them, data center business revenue is expected to reach an astonishing 85.4 billion US dollars, up 107% year over year. This financial report is not only a performance test of chip leaders, but also a systematic stress test of the global AI capital expenditure cycle. The market focuses on the quality of growth, Rubin structural relays, and ecological financing risks. In addition, the options market also takes into account the two-way fluctuation of the stock price of about 6%-7% after the financial report was announced, corresponding to a change in market value of more than US$320 billion.

Up to 30%! Dark Side of the Moon is reportedly negotiating revenue sharing for the Kimi K3 model with the Meiyun computing giant. According to people familiar with the matter, Dark Side of the Moon is negotiating revenue sharing agreements with Microsoft, Amazon, and Google to allow these US cloud computing giants to host their Kimi K3 model. If an agreement can be reached, it could become the first major revenue sharing agreement between a Chinese artificial intelligence company and a major US cloud computing company. People familiar with the matter said that the Dark Side of the Moon seeks a maximum share of 30%. People familiar with the matter also revealed that Dark Side of the Moon has signed similar agreements with some smaller cloud platforms. Alibaba is also seeking revenue-sharing agreements with key users of its new open source AI model.

Samsung (SSNLF.US) and SK Hynix (SKHY.US) plan to increase the supply of 8-tier HBM4 memory to Nvidia in the second half of the year to ensure stable supply. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix plan to increase the supply of Nvidia's 8-layer HBM4 memory in the second half of this year. This arrangement is mainly influenced by Nvidia's supply strategy and aims to guarantee the stability of the supply of various types of HBM memory while also taking into account the calorific value control of the product. According to information, 8-layer memory is likely to become the flagship product of the next generation HBM4E, highlighting its strategic position in the field of high-performance computing in the future.

Is the Shanghai data center “empty”? Tesla (TSLA.US) China responds: Untrue news. A few days ago, some netizens broke the news that the Shanghai data center specially prepared by Tesla for FSD's entry into China has been “empty” and that all relevant matchmaking teams have been evacuated. A Tesla China insider responded: “Untrue news.” A search on Tesla's US official website revealed that in the FSD supervised version of the list of regions where it can be used, China is still on the list of regions where it can be used.

Meta (META.US) is reported to be discussing court settlement with multiple state attorneys general over the sky-high price lawsuit. According to people familiar with the matter, Meta and multiple US attorneys general have discussed the possibility of reaching a settlement on a major case during the trial. The case alleges that Meta deliberately designed Facebook and Instagram to make teenagers addicted. The case exposed Meta to potential legal risk in the amount of billions of dollars, as top law enforcement officials in 29 states are trying to seek huge financial penalties on behalf of the public and are also demanding mandatory changes to the way these platforms operate. According to Meta's own estimates, if the lawsuit is lost, the company could face fines of up to $1.4 trillion, an amount close to its market value and unprecedented in legal history. If a settlement is reached, the amount could be much lower.

Zoom's (ZM.US) Q2 performance exceeded expectations, but Q3 guidance failed to boost investor confidence. Zoom's second-quarter revenue increased 4.9% year over year to $1,277 billion, slightly higher than analysts' average forecast of $1.27 billion. Adjusted net profit was $464 million, down 1.5% from $471 million in the same period last year; adjusted earnings per share were $1.55, better than analysts' average expectations of $1.48. Zoom expects third-quarter revenue of US$1,275 million to US$1,280 million, with a median forecast range of US$1,277.5 billion, which is lower than the average analysts' estimate of US$1.28 billion; adjusted earnings per share for the third quarter are US$1.46 to US$1.48, with a median forecast range of US$1.47, which is lower than the analysts' average expectation of US$1.28 billion.

The increase in SJM.US coffee prices boosted performance and raised full-year profit expectations. SMARK's first quarter revenue and profit both exceeded expectations. Adjusted earnings per share for the quarter were $3.24, far exceeding $1.90 in the same period last year; net sales increased 5% to US$2.22 billion, mainly benefiting from price increases for coffee products. The company raised its annual profit forecast to 10.50-11 US dollars per share, higher than the market forecast of 10.07 US dollars. At the same time, it is expected that sales for the whole year will drop by 1%-2%, which is narrower than previously forecast.

The KSS.US (KSS.US) same-store sales trend improved, but the stock price was still sold off after the earnings report. Kohl's net sales for the second quarter were US$3.3 billion, down 0.9% year on year. The decline in same-store sales narrowed to 0.9% compared to the previous quarter. The CEO says the transformation is progressing, but admits there is still “critical work” to be done. Due to receiving tariff rebates, the company raised its full-year performance guidelines. Sales are expected to remain flat to fall 1.5%. The adjusted earnings per share is expected to rise from 1 to 1.6 US dollars to 1.8 to 2.4 US dollars, higher than analysts' expectations of 1.45 US dollars. However, the stock price still plummeted by about 5% before Wednesday's market.

Ideal Auto (LI.US) Q2 revenue exceeded expectations, and gross margin narrowed to 11%. The third quarter guidance fell short of expectations. Ideal Auto's Q2 revenue was 25.67 billion yuan, down 15% year on year, slightly exceeding market estimates of 24.96 billion yuan; adjusted net loss was 1.5 billion yuan, compared with adjusted net profit of 1.47 billion yuan for the same period last year. The estimated Q3 revenue is between 26.6 billion yuan and 28 billion yuan, which is about 17% lower than the market forecast of 32.26 billion yuan; the estimated delivery volume is 95,000 to 100,000 vehicles, which is lower than the market estimate of about 121,900 vehicles.

TIGR.US (TIGR.US)'s second-quarter revenue reached a record high, and the internationalization strategy achieved remarkable results. Shangrongke's total revenue for Q2 in 2026 reached US$182.3 million, an increase of 31.4% year on year. Both operating profit and net profit turned a month-on-month loss into profit. 32,600 new depositors were added, and total customer assets reached US$60.7 billion, and all overseas markets grew. The company continues to iterate products, expand the Hong Kong stock IPO underwriting business, and has initiated a share repurchase program of about 5 million US dollars.

Key economic data and event forecasts

20:30 Beijing time: US monthly personal expenditure rate for July, US PCE price index annual rate for July, revised US real GDP annualized quarterly rate for the second quarter, and initial monthly rate for US durable goods orders in July.

22:30 Beijing time: Changes in US EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending August 21.

23:45 Beijing time: 2027 FOMC voting committee and Richmond Federal Reserve Chairman Barkin attended a symposium.

Performance Forecast

Thursday morning: Nvidia, CrowdStrike (CRWD.US), HP (HPQ.US), Saifushi (CRM.US), Synopsys (SNPS.US), Okta (OKTA.US).

Thursday pre-market: Best Buy (BBY.US), Bili.US (BILI.US), Artes Solar (CSIQ.US), Gaotu (GOTU.US), Baozun E-commerce (BZUN.US), Lotus (LOT.US)