Bitcoin once returned to $80,000 Kalshi traders “cooled down” the crypto frenzy: the probability that the CLARITY Act will clear customs within the year is less than 25%

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Bitcoin has rebounded strongly by more than 20% in the past week and once returned above $80,000. However, in addition to the cryptocurrency market revelation, traders on the prediction market platform Kalshi are starting to “throw cold water”: the probability that the US “Clarity Act” (CLARITY Act) will be signed into law by the end of the year is less than 25%, and the probability that the bill will be implemented before April 2027 is less than 50%.

The CLARITY Act aims to establish a clear regulatory framework for digital assets and clarify the jurisdictional boundaries between the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Currently, the SEC is responsible for securities regulation, and the CFTC is responsible for derivatives (including futures and prediction markets). Although the two major institutions have issued guidelines related to crypto assets, there is no clear division of rights and responsibilities between them.

The bill was passed with bipartisan support in the House of Representatives in July 2025, and a procedural vote is scheduled to be held in the Senate on September 15. The White House continues to put pressure on Congress. US President Trump publicly called on Congress last week to pass “a fair version of the CLARITY Act.”

Bitcoin climbed to $80,908 on Tuesday, returning to the $80,000 mark for the first time since May 15. The core catalyst for this round of the market comes from a macroeconomic shift: the US Treasury announced an expansion of the scale of long-term bond repurchases last week, lowering long-term interest rates and dragging down the US dollar, reviving the “depreciation transaction” narrative. Meanwhile, Trump met with SEC, CFTC, and a number of crypto agency executives to push forward with the CLARITY Act, and the market's optimism about clarifying the US crypto regulatory framework was significantly restored. The sharp return of institutional funds and shortfall compensation further amplified the increase.

However, in contrast to market fervor, Kalshi traders believe that the Clarity Act is less likely to clear customs within the year, but the possibility of customs clearance before July next year is close to 60%.

SEC Chairman Paul Atkins and CFTC Chairman Michael Selig attended Trump's meeting with cryptocurrency industry leaders last week. Selig said at the meeting that if the CLARITY bill fails to be passed by the Senate, the agency will act on its own.

He said, “If the CLARITY Act continues to stall due to Democratic Party obstruction, the CFTC will use its existing powers to begin establishing a regulatory system for the crypto asset market. We have a responsibility to do this for the American people.”

Currently, the price of Bitcoin is around $79,000.