Sun Life Financial (TSX:SLF) is drawing fresh attention after announcing a reinsurance and asset management partnership with Wilton Re, centered on the creation of Windsor Life Re in the U.S. and Bermuda.
At a share price of CA$110.6, Sun Life Financial has seen a 90 day share price return of 10.13% and a year to date share price return of 28.13%. The 1 year total shareholder return of 43.57% points to momentum that has built over a longer period. Recent announcements, including the Windsor Life Re partnership with Wilton Re, a CA$150 million seed commitment to the AAM Wilshire Infrastructure Fund and preferred share decisions, have kept the stock in focus as investors reassess both growth opportunities and risk profile.
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Sun Life Financial now trades close to analyst targets after strong recent gains and the Windsor Life Re announcement. Is the current price fair for the new direction, or is it worth waiting for a cheaper entry before adding exposure?
Compared with Sun Life Financial’s last close at CA$110.6, the most followed fair value narrative of about CA$112.93 suggests only a small valuation gap and puts more weight on the quality and consistency of future earnings than on a big pricing mismatch.
Expansion and resilience of Sun Life's asset management businesses, including SLC Management's alternative and private asset capabilities, are increasing fee-based earnings and reducing reliance on spread income, positioning earnings for greater stability and long-term growth.
Read the complete narrative. Read the complete narrative.
Want to see what sits behind that earnings stability story? The most followed narrative leans heavily on growth in fees, modest margin improvement and a future earnings multiple that has to line up with those forecasts. It raises the question of which specific revenue and profit assumptions justify that fair value and how they compare with today’s mix of Canada, U.S. and Asia.
Result: Fair Value of CA$112.93 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.
However, Sun Life Financial still faces pressure in U.S. Dental and asset management, where weaker trends or further impairments could quickly challenge the current fair value story.
Find out about the key risks to this Sun Life Financial narrative.
The analyst fair value of CA$112.93 suggests Sun Life Financial is only modestly undervalued on earnings forecasts and target prices. Yet the SWS DCF model points to a future cash flow value of about CA$226.80, which indicates a very different picture. Which set of assumptions do you find more realistic?
Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.
If the mixed views on Sun Life Financial leave you unsure, use that as a reason to move quickly and test the numbers yourself. Start by weighing the upside investors are focused on through the 3 key rewards
Do not stop with Sun Life Financial if you want a fuller picture of what the market is offering right now. Use the Simply Wall Street Screener to pressure test your current holdings, surface fresh ideas and keep your watchlist working hard for you.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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