What Does The Future Hold For Ascentage Pharma Group International (HKG:6855)? These Analysts Have Been Cutting Their Estimates
Today is shaping up negative for Ascentage Pharma Group International (HKG:6855) shareholders, with the analysts delivering a substantial negative revision to this year's forecasts. Revenue estimates were cut sharply as the analysts signalled a weaker outlook - perhaps a sign that investors should temper their expectations as well.
After the downgrade, the nine analysts covering Ascentage Pharma Group International are now predicting revenues of CN¥667m in 2026. If met, this would reflect a reasonable 3.9% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. The loss per share is anticipated to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 29% to CN¥2.83. However, before this estimates update, the consensus had been expecting revenues of CN¥862m and CN¥2.83 per share in losses. So there's been quite a change-up of views after the recent consensus updates, with the analysts making a serious cut to their revenue forecasts while also making no real change to the loss per share numbers.
View our latest analysis for Ascentage Pharma Group International
There was no real change to the consensus price target of CN¥70.47, suggesting that the revisions to revenue estimates are not expected to have a long-term impact on Ascentage Pharma Group International's valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Ascentage Pharma Group International at CN¥92.79 per share, while the most bearish prices it at CN¥37.72. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Ascentage Pharma Group International's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 7.9% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 39% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 22% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Ascentage Pharma Group International is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.
The Bottom Line
Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and the latest forecasts imply the business will grow sales slower than the wider market. Given the stark change in sentiment, we'd understand if investors became more cautious on Ascentage Pharma Group International after today.
Still, the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Ascentage Pharma Group International analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.
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