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MINISO Group Holding (MNSO), What Is Behind Its Latest Update?

Simply Wall St · 1d ago

Guidance Highlights and What Is Driving MINISO Group Holding Now

MINISO Group Holding (MNSO) has issued earnings guidance for the six months to 30 June 2026, flagging higher revenue, operating profit and net profit expectations compared with the same period a year earlier.

Management projects revenue of RMB 11,450 million to RMB 11,550 million, operating profit of RMB 1,620 million to RMB 1,660 million and profit for the period of RMB 940 million to RMB 960 million. The company also expects basic and diluted EPS of RMB 0.78 to RMB 0.79.

The guidance identifies an unrealized mark to market gain of about RMB 277 million from an investment in a limited partnership focused on the AI industry as a key contributor to operating profit. MINISO Group Holding also points to roughly RMB 60 million of earnings contribution from its stake in Yonghui Superstores.

These gains are set against several cost and loss items that management highlights in the guidance. Investors may want to consider these moving parts when evaluating the outlook for MINISO Group Holding shares.

See our latest analysis for MINISO Group Holding.

MINISO Group Holding's latest guidance lands against a share price that has eased to US$11.02, with the stock down 9.75% on a 1 month share price return and 43.46% year to date. The 1 year total shareholder return has declined 57.16%, suggesting recent momentum has been weak despite the projected uplift in earnings from investment related gains and contributions from Yonghui Superstores.

If this kind of guidance driven move has you reviewing your watchlist, it can be a good moment to look beyond MINISO Group Holding and scan 20 top founder-led companies

Given MINISO Group Holding's sharp share price decline and guidance that leans on investment gains, the next issue is simple: Does the current valuation still offer enough upside to justify the risks you are taking?

Most Popular Narrative: 56.7% Undervalued

According to the most followed narrative on MINISO Group Holding, a fair value of $25.46 sits well above the last close at $11.02, which frames the recent guidance against a sizeable implied gap.

Given these factors, it would not be unreasonable to see revenue more than double in the next five years, potentially reaching the RMB 25-30 billion range, driven primarily by the compounding effect of overseas store expansion and enhanced store productivity.

Assuming revenue doubles and the adjusted net margin expands from its current ~16-17% level to around 20% due to these factors, adjusted net earnings could potentially triple over the next five years.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see how this kind of store growth, overseas mix shift and margin profile are stitched together into that valuation story? The narrative leans heavily on compounding store economics, a changing revenue mix and a higher future profit multiple to reach its fair value. Curious how those moving parts connect and what is assumed to happen along the way? The full breakdown lays out the numbers behind that $25.46 figure and how they compare to today.

Result: Fair Value of $25.46 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, the MINISO Group Holding narrative still carries clear risks if global store expansion underperforms expectations or if geopolitical and regulatory shifts slow overseas growth.

Find out about the key risks to this MINISO Group Holding narrative.

Next Steps

With sentiment on MINISO Group Holding clearly mixed, this is a good moment to review the full picture quickly and decide where you stand. To weigh those concerns against the potential upside, take a closer look at the 4 key rewards and 2 important warning signs

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.