Fangzheng strategy: US bond interest rates are pressured, the tech stock narrative weakens, and the resources and pharmaceutical sector under the US dollar is favored by institutions

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Fangzheng Securities released a research report saying that the market rose first and then declined this week. The main indices were adjusted after a rapid rebound in the previous period. Wande Quan A closed down 1.5% throughout the week, and trading activity declined somewhat. Rising interest rates on US bonds, loosening overseas technology narratives, and weak domestic economic data are suppressing risk appetite, and capital is shifting towards resources, banks, etc. Looking ahead to the future market, short-term risks have been released, but external interest rates and the outcome of the domestic peak season remain to be seen. In terms of allocation, we can focus on technology segments, assets benefiting from weak dollars, and pharmaceutical core leaders.

The main views of Fangzheng Securities are as follows:

1. Market review: This week (2026/8/17-2026/8/21), the market rose first and then declined. Wandequan A closed down 1.5% throughout the week, the Shanghai Composite Index -0.6%, and the GEM index -2.2%. The average weekly daily turnover of the entire market decreased by about 85.5 billion yuan to 2.27 trillion yuan, and trading activity declined again. On the industry side, petroleum and petrochemicals, non-ferrous metals, and banks led the way, with increases of 5.4%, 2.5%, and 2.4% respectively. Media, computers, defense and military industries led the decline, with increases and decreases of -5.5%, -5.0%, and -3.8%, respectively. In terms of subject matter, concepts such as shipping selection, gold jewelry, and vaccines are more active.

Specifically, the market opened high on Monday, and the market broke through upward, driven by the “bully” sentiment. On the 14th, Nvidia announced that SpectrumX co-packaged optical switches had entered the full mass production stage, and SK Hynix announced an investment of 38.4 billion US dollars to build a new fab in South Korea. Technology stocks, which had stagnated earlier, led the decline, and the Maotai mid-term report dragged down the liquor market below expectations. The market bottomed out and rebounded on Tuesday. Market differences intensified under the influence of weak domestic economic data and the weak performance of the Japanese and South Korean markets. On August 17, J.P. Morgan Chase released the “Food Security Is National Security” report, warning that the next round of the global food crisis may break out next year. The agricultural sector is strong throughout the day under the narratives of El Niño and the food crisis. The expiration of the 60-day memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran has not been extended, and oil prices have risen again. Pan-energy performance is relatively good. The market opened low on Wednesday, and the 30-year US Treasury yield rose to 5.30%, a record high since June 2007. Anthropic's ARR fell short of expectations and OpenAI announced the suspension of cutting-edge model training, which had a negative impact on the technology narrative. Market weakness recovered on Thursday. Hynix bought back a large amount of money, the US Treasury repurchased long-term bonds, the Moderna cancer vaccine made positive progress in phase III clinical trials, and the implementation of the “15th Five-Year Plan” health insurance plan led to better non-tech sentiment among A-shares. The market contracted and fluctuated on Friday. On the 19th, SK Hynix and researchers from the University of Virginia and other institutions published the next-generation CPO roadmap — expanding optical interconnection from network switching to memory interfaces. At the same time, a new wave of semiconductor price increases is approaching, and the technology sector is once again strengthening. Furthermore, the Trump administration announced the imposition of “the harshest economic sanctions in history” against Iran, and US Treasury Secretary Bezent hinted that the scale of long-term treasury bond repurchases might be further expanded, compounding that the resumption of production at the Jianwo mine fell short of expectations, jointly driving the rise in non-ferrous metals.

2. Market trend analysis: The market reached the high point of this round of overfall and rebound in the first half of last week. At that time, the main indices and industry basically rose at the bottom of the current round, and the rebound took a short time. After the overfall rebound was blocked, the market was mainly adjusted in the second half of the week. The core reason was the disturbance in US bond interest rates and the rift in the technology stock narrative. At this stage, it may be necessary to wait for new market layout opportunities to emerge. Although the market unleashed most of the risks through the sharp decline last Wednesday, in terms of the external environment, oil prices continued to make the Fed's policy choices difficult, and the pressure on US debt is difficult to overcome. The good point is that weak dollar transactions brought about by the depreciation of the US dollar have mitigated some of the negative impacts. Furthermore, the economy is gradually entering a peak season, and high energy prices have a certain suppressing effect on fundamentals. The effects of policies after the July Politburo meeting need to be verified, and the risk of a poor economic season requires attention.

3. Configuration strategy suggestions: dips layout, continue to focus on three aspects of configuration opportunities

First, as we enter the interim report performance disclosure window, the internal segmentation of technology stocks is leaning towards energy price increases and energy expansion, including core targets with low congestion and good chip structure in overseas computing power, and semiconductor equipment and materials with strong economic certainty in domestic computing power. In addition, we can also focus on relatively low AI applications and Hang Seng Technology; second, we can focus on the layout opportunities of HALO assets under a weak dollar. US debt and dollar credit issues have reignited, and the Fed's interest rate hike expectations have further weakened. In addition to non-ferrous metals+chemicals related to core resources, we can also focus on old and new energy reserves, including old and new energy sources, including old and new reserve energy sources, including old and new energy sources. Energy and power grid equipment , coal, etc.; the third is a core pharmaceutical leader with good prosperity, low congestion, and negative suppression relief.