3SBio Inc. Just Missed EPS By 31%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next
As you might know, 3SBio Inc. (HKG:1530) last week released its latest interim, and things did not turn out so great for shareholders. Results showed a clear earnings miss, with CN¥4.5b revenue coming in 3.4% lower than what the analystsexpected. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.44 missed the mark badly, arriving some 31% below what was expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the eleven analysts covering 3SBio provided consensus estimates of CN¥9.12b revenue in 2026, which would reflect a sizeable 49% decline over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to tumble 74% to CN¥0.88 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of CN¥10.1b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥1.05 in 2026. The analysts seem less optimistic after the recent results, reducing their revenue forecasts and making a real cut to earnings per share numbers.
Check out our latest analysis for 3SBio
Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the HK$32.83 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values 3SBio at HK$43.73 per share, while the most bearish prices it at HK$23.80. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 74% by the end of 2026. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 23% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 22% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that 3SBio's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at HK$32.83, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple 3SBio analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.
You still need to take note of risks, for example - 3SBio has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.