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Almirall (BME:ALM) Expands AI Dermatology Pipeline, Is The Valuation Gap Justified?

Simply Wall St · 2d ago

Almirall (BME:ALM) has drawn fresh investor attention after announcing a collaboration and licensing agreement with Shenzhen CrystalO Biopharma Technology to co develop small molecule treatments for medical dermatology using CrystalO’s AI driven ion channel discovery platform.

See our latest analysis for Almirall.

The CrystalO agreement arrives at a time when Almirall’s share price has softened, with the stock down 4.39% over the past month and 18.91% year to date. The 3 year total shareholder return is positive at 14.87%, suggesting longer term holders have fared better than recent buyers.

If this kind of AI driven dermatology partnership has caught your eye, it may be a moment to broaden your watchlist and review the 129 healthcare AI stocks

Almirall’s share price has softened, even as the CrystalO partnership adds a fresh project to the pipeline. Is it better to wait for an even cheaper entry, or does the current valuation already reflect that hesitation?

Most Popular Narrative: 28.2% Undervalued

Almirall's most followed valuation narrative puts fair value at €14.58 versus the recent close of €10.46, which points to a sizable valuation gap and places more focus on what the dermatology pipeline and R&D partnerships can deliver from here.

Robust innovation and successful partnerships (Simcere, Lilly, Sun Pharma) have deepened Almirall's late-stage and proprietary pipeline, raising the probability of high-margin new product launches addressing underserved patient populations, supporting both top-line and margin expansion.

Read the complete narrative. Read the complete narrative.

Investors may want to consider what kind of revenue increase and margin uplift would need to result from that pipeline to support this valuation gap. The narrative leans heavily on a tight set of growth and profitability assumptions that link those partnerships to higher earnings and a potentially richer future multiple.

Result: Fair Value of €14.58 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, the Almirall story also carries real execution risk, particularly if key dermatology products underperform or if U.S. weakness and higher biologic costs squeeze future profitability.

Find out about the key risks to this Almirall narrative.

Another View: What Almirall’s P/E Ratio Is Telling You

The SWS DCF model points to Almirall trading below an estimated fair value, yet the P/E ratio of 38.5x is high compared with the European pharmaceuticals average of 21.8x, the peer average of 21.3x, and a fair ratio of 26x. Is the current price reflecting opportunity or extra risk?

To see how that P/E gap could close over time, it helps to look at the earnings and cash flow assumptions that sit behind our model, and how sensitive they are to changes in growth or margins. See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

BME:ALM P/E Ratio as at Aug 2026
BME:ALM P/E Ratio as at Aug 2026

Next Steps

With sentiment around Almirall's valuation and pipeline mixed, it can help to move quickly, review the underlying data yourself and decide what feels justified. To see what investors are currently optimistic about, take a closer look at the 4 key rewards

Looking for more investment ideas beyond Almirall?

If Almirall has sharpened your focus on where capital could work harder, do not stop here. A broader watchlist can reveal opportunities you would otherwise miss.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.