EBOS Group Limited Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models
It's been a good week for EBOS Group Limited (NZSE:EBO) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest full-year results, and the shares gained 7.2% to NZ$22.75. It looks like the results were a bit of a negative overall. While revenues of AU$13b were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings were less than expected, missing estimates by 6.5% to hit AU$1.10 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for EBOS Group from ten analysts is for revenues of AU$14.0b in 2027. If met, it would imply a reasonable 3.5% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to rise 3.6% to AU$1.13. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of AU$14.1b and earnings per share (EPS) of AU$1.21 in 2027. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a small dip in their earnings per share forecasts.
View our latest analysis for EBOS Group
It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at NZ$28.19, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic EBOS Group analyst has a price target of NZ$34.77 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at NZ$21.81. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the EBOS Group's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that EBOS Group's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2027 expected to display 3.5% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 6.3% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 5.9% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than EBOS Group.
The Bottom Line
The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for EBOS Group. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at NZ$28.19, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for EBOS Group going out to 2029, and you can see them free on our platform here.
And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for EBOS Group you should know about.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.