Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett said that if the US Treasury's plan to lower long-term Treasury yields fails, the US dollar may be under pressure and may trigger short bets on riskier assets before the November midterm elections. Hartnett said that if US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent “cannot bring the 30-year US Treasury yield below 5%,” then the dollar may decline in the next few weeks, while the market may increase shorting in highly leveraged sectors, including risky assets such as AI hyperscale cloud service providers and private equity credit. He said that if the plan fails, financial stocks may also face shorting pressure. Hartnett and his team said that the proposal to expand the repurchase of longer-term treasury bonds is equivalent to “quasi-” quantitative easing, and is also the latest example of a series of “Basent put options” to address the threats faced by US government financing and artificial intelligence financing. Hartnett wrote, “Policy fears to 'fix' the fixed income market should be able to limit further increases in US Treasury yields, but they cannot actually lower yields.” Bank of America strategists said that currently the bank's long and short indicators are still “extremely bullish.” The strategist quoted EPFR data as saying that in the week ending August 19, funds focusing on US stocks attracted nearly $29 billion in capital inflows, the highest in three weeks. At the same time, the semiconductor fund experienced capital outflows for the third week in a row, and the cumulative redemption scale reached 6.3 billion US dollars.

Zhitongcaijing · 3d ago
Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett said that if the US Treasury's plan to lower long-term Treasury yields fails, the US dollar may be under pressure and may trigger short bets on riskier assets before the November midterm elections. Hartnett said that if US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent “cannot bring the 30-year US Treasury yield below 5%,” then the dollar may decline in the next few weeks, while the market may increase shorting in highly leveraged sectors, including risky assets such as AI hyperscale cloud service providers and private equity credit. He said that if the plan fails, financial stocks may also face shorting pressure. Hartnett and his team said that the proposal to expand the repurchase of longer-term treasury bonds is equivalent to “quasi-” quantitative easing, and is also the latest example of a series of “Basent put options” to address the threats faced by US government financing and artificial intelligence financing. Hartnett wrote, “Policy fears to 'fix' the fixed income market should be able to limit further increases in US Treasury yields, but they cannot actually lower yields.” Bank of America strategists said that currently the bank's long and short indicators are still “extremely bullish.” The strategist quoted EPFR data as saying that in the week ending August 19, funds focusing on US stocks attracted nearly $29 billion in capital inflows, the highest in three weeks. At the same time, the semiconductor fund experienced capital outflows for the third week in a row, and the cumulative redemption scale reached 6.3 billion US dollars.