Results: Elopak ASA Beat Earnings Expectations And Analysts Now Have New Forecasts
Last week, you might have seen that Elopak ASA (OB:ELO) released its quarterly result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 5.2% to kr34.50 in the past week. The result was positive overall - although revenues of €304m were in line with what the analysts predicted, Elopak surprised by delivering a statutory profit of €0.06 per share, modestly greater than expected. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Elopak's four analysts is for revenues of €1.25b in 2026. This reflects an okay 3.3% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to rise 2.7% to €0.26. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of €1.25b and earnings per share (EPS) of €0.27 in 2026. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the small dip in their earnings per share numbers for next year.
View our latest analysis for Elopak
The consensus price target held steady at kr39.22, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Elopak, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at kr44.95 and the most bearish at kr36.96 per share. With such a wide range in price targets, analysts are almost certainly betting on widely divergent outcomes in the underlying business. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Elopak'shistorical trends, as the 6.6% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2026 is roughly in line with the 7.4% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 3.6% per year. So it's pretty clear that Elopak is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Elopak. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Elopak. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Elopak going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.
However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Elopak that you should be aware of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.