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Lendlease Group (ASX:LLC) Could Be 16% Overvalued On Its Full Year Loss

Simply Wall St · 3d ago

Lendlease Group (ASX:LLC) has drawn fresh attention after reporting full year 2026 sales of A$5,429 million and shifting from a prior net profit to a net loss of A$749 million.

See our latest analysis for Lendlease Group.

The share price of Lendlease Group has fallen sharply over the year, with a year to date share price return of 45.93% and a 1 year total shareholder return decline of 46.97%. This points to fading momentum as investors reassess the company after its recent earnings release and upcoming dividend dates.

If this kind of reset has you looking beyond a single stock, it can be a useful moment to broaden your search with 4 top founder-led companies

Lendlease Group still owns a sizeable global real estate platform, yet the share price reset and swing to a A$749 million loss have put the focus squarely on value. Are investors now paying too much, too little, or roughly fair?

Most Popular Narrative: 16.3% Overvalued

Lendlease Group last closed at A$2.79, compared with a narrative fair value of A$2.40. This frames the stock as pricing in more than the valuation work supports according to ANTONI0.

Lendlease looks cheap relative to its reported asset value, but at $2.80 I don’t think the discount is yet wide enough to compensate for the leverage, execution risk and time required to realise that value.

For me, LLC is currently a watchlist, not a buy.

Read the complete narrative.

The narrative focuses on how much value might actually flow from the Capital Release Unit, the gearing profile and the cash conversion of the Australian development pipeline. The fair value is based on how these moving parts interact with each other over time rather than on a single headline metric.

Result: Fair Value of A$2.40 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, this narrative could be challenged if Lendlease Group suffers further large CRU impairments or if underlying gearing does not fall from 37.7%.

Find out about the key risks to this Lendlease Group narrative.

Another View on Lendlease Group's Value Signal

While the user narrative leans on a sum-of-the-parts style view, the market ratios tell a different story. Lendlease Group trades on a P/S of 0.4x compared with 2.6x for the Oceanic Real Estate industry and a fair ratio of 1x. That discount may reflect genuine risk or a potential opportunity if sentiment shifts.

It raises a simple question: Is the current gap compensation for balance sheet and execution concerns, or is the market overdoing the discount to Lendlease Group's revenue base?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

ASX:LLC P/S Ratio as at Aug 2026
ASX:LLC P/S Ratio as at Aug 2026

Next Steps

If the mixed messages around Lendlease Group leave you unsure, that is a signal to review the numbers yourself and move quickly. To weigh both sides of the story, start with the 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs

Looking for more investment ideas beyond Lendlease Group?

Do not stop with Lendlease Group. Use this moment to widen your watchlist with ideas that match your goals, risk comfort and income needs.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.