Results: NMDC Limited Exceeded Expectations And The Consensus Has Updated Its Estimates
NMDC Limited (NSE:NMDC) last week reported its latest quarterly results, which makes it a good time for investors to dive in and see if the business is performing in line with expectations. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of ₹68b were in line with what the analysts predicted, NMDC surprised by delivering a statutory profit of ₹2.25 per share, a notable 19% above expectations. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on NMDC after the latest results.
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the nine analysts covering NMDC, is for revenues of ₹309.1b in 2027. This implies a perceptible 3.8% reduction in NMDC's revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to step up 14% to ₹9.67. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of ₹315.7b and earnings per share (EPS) of ₹9.74 in 2027. So it looks like the analysts have become a bit less optimistic after the latest results announcement, with revenues expected to fall even as the company is supposed to maintain EPS.
Check out our latest analysis for NMDC
The consensus has reconfirmed its price target of ₹89.57, showing that the analysts don't expect weaker revenue expectations next year to have a material impact on NMDC's market value. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic NMDC analyst has a price target of ₹112 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at ₹66.92. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 5.0% by the end of 2027. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 6.1% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 11% per year. It's pretty clear that NMDC's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. Yet - earnings are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for NMDC going out to 2029, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for NMDC that you should be aware of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.