Webull's Profitability Streak Meets Its First Real Expense Test
Note: These figures reflect diluted GAAP earnings per share, reported before non-recurring items, and may differ from the non-GAAP figures used by some sources.
Part 2.1: Price Behavior Around Earnings
BULL reports after market close, meaning Day 0 captures anticipatory trading before results are known, while Day +1 reflects the market's first full session to digest the actual numbers.
| Earnings Date | Day 0 Move | Day 0 Range | Day +1 Move | Day +1 Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-21 | -$0.38 (-5.44%) | $0.75 (10.66%) | -$0.43 (-6.51%) | $0.51 (7.72%) |
| 2026-03-04 | +$0.11 (+1.85%) | $0.47 (7.89%) | -$0.34 (-5.60%) | $0.55 (9.06%) |
| 2025-11-20 | +$0.03 (+0.36%) | $0.48 (5.90%) | +$0.04 (+0.48%) | $0.92 (11.09%) |
| 2025-08-28 | +$0.23 (+1.59%) | $0.47 (3.25%) | -$1.08 (-7.36%) | $1.37 (9.34%) |
| 2025-05-22 | +$0.91 (+7.23%) | $1.15 (9.13%) | -$1.20 (-8.89%) | $0.74 (5.48%) |
| 2025-03-27 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2024-11-13 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Avg Abs Move | 3.29% | 7.37% | 5.77% | 8.54% |
Historical price action around BULL earnings shows substantial volatility, with an average absolute Day 0 move of 3.29% and Day +1 move of 5.77%—both well above typical market reactions. The Day 0 trading ranges average 7.37%, while Day +1 ranges expand to 8.54%, indicating significant intraday volatility as traders react to results and management commentary.
The most recent earnings (May 2026) saw a -5.44% Day 0 decline followed by a -6.51% Day +1 drop, reflecting disappointment with the Q1 miss. The March 2026 report showed initial strength (+1.85% Day 0) that reversed sharply (-5.60% Day +1), suggesting investors initially gave management the benefit of the doubt before reassessing. These patterns indicate BULL's stock is highly sensitive to earnings outcomes, with misses typically punished swiftly and decisively.
Part 2.2: Options Market Expected Move
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Expiration Date | 08/21/26 (DTE 3) |
| Expected Move | $0.60 (7.49%) |
| Expected Range | $7.35 to $8.54 |
| Implied Volatility | 118.15% |
The options market is pricing a 7.49% expected move (±$0.60 from $7.94), which sits slightly above the historical Day 0 average of 3.29% but below the Day +1 average of 5.77%. This suggests options traders are anticipating meaningful volatility but not an outsized reaction relative to BULL's recent history—though the wide historical ranges (averaging 7-8%) indicate the potential for significant swings in either direction depending on results and guidance.
Part 3: What Analysts Are Saying
Analysts maintain a decidedly bullish stance on BULL despite recent earnings disappointments. The consensus rating stands at 4.50 out of 5.0, reflecting 3 Strong Buy ratings and 1 Hold among the four analysts covering the stock. The average price target of $12.33 implies substantial 55% upside from the current price of $7.93, with individual targets ranging from $10.00 to $14.00.
Sentiment has remained unchanged over the past month, suggesting analysts are looking through near-term execution issues and maintaining conviction in the longer-term opportunity. The lack of any Sell ratings indicates the analyst community sees the current valuation as attractive relative to BULL's growth potential in the expanding online brokerage market.
The wide range of price targets ($10.00 to $14.00) reflects differing views on the company's ability to achieve profitability at scale and capture market share from established competitors. The most bullish analysts appear to be betting on BULL's mobile-first platform and younger user demographic as sustainable competitive advantages, while the more conservative $10.00 target still implies meaningful upside but likely incorporates greater skepticism about near-term margin expansion.
Part 4: Technical Picture
BULL enters earnings with a 72% Buy signal from the Barchart Technical Opinion, unchanged from last week but strengthened from 56% a month ago, indicating improving technical momentum over the intermediate term. At $7.93, the stock trades above its 10-day ($7.65), 20-day ($7.54), 50-day ($7.20), and 100-day ($6.75) moving averages, but has slipped just below its 5-day average ($7.95), suggesting a minor near-term pullback within an otherwise constructive trend.
Timeframe Analysis:
- Short-term (100% Buy): Strong buy signal indicates robust near-term momentum heading into the earnings release
- Medium-term (50% Buy): Moderate buy signal suggests consolidation in the intermediate timeframe, with the trend still positive but less emphatic
- Long-term (50% Buy): Moderate buy signal reflects a constructive longer-term trend, though not as strong as the short-term setup
Trend Characteristics: The technical opinion shows Weak strength with a Weakening direction, suggesting the uptrend remains intact but is losing some momentum—a cautionary signal heading into a potentially volatile earnings event.
| Period | Value | Period | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Day MA | $7.95 | 50-Day MA | $7.20 |
| 10-Day MA | $7.65 | 100-Day MA | $6.75 |
| 20-Day MA | $7.54 | 200-Day MA | $7.21 |
The stock's position above all major moving averages except the 5-day provides a supportive technical foundation, with the rising 50-day ($7.20) and 100-day ($6.75) averages offering potential support levels if earnings disappoint. However, the weakening trend strength and the stock's failure to hold above the 5-day average suggest some near-term caution is warranted. The 200-day moving average at $7.21 sits just below current levels and could serve as a key support zone if volatility increases post-earnings. Overall, the technical setup is moderately constructive but not overwhelmingly bullish—the stock has room to run on a positive surprise but also lacks strong technical cushioning if results disappoint again.