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Almonty Industries (NasdaqCM:ALM) Launches Buyback On Mixed Valuation Signals

Simply Wall St · 1d ago

Almonty Industries (ALM) has introduced a new share repurchase plan following a recent earnings update, giving investors fresh insight into how the company is approaching capital allocation.

See our latest analysis for Almonty Industries.

The new buyback sits alongside a sharp move in Almonty Industries' share price, with a 1 day share price return of 8.42% and a 7 day share price return of 19.42%. The 1 year total shareholder return of 249.57% and very large 3 year total shareholder return suggest strong momentum, despite a 90 day share price return that declined 4.99%.

If this mix of earnings news and capital returns has your attention, it could be a good moment to broaden your search and check out 28 best rare earth metal stocks

Almonty Industries now trades at a sizeable discount to both analyst targets and an assessed fair value, even after the latest jump in the share price. Is the market rightly cautious or mispricing this tungsten focused miner?

Price to earnings for Almonty Industries: is the premium justified?

On a P/E basis, Almonty Industries looks expensive compared with both its own fair ratio and sector peers, even at the latest close of $16.36.

The P/E ratio compares the share price to earnings per share. For a miner like Almonty Industries, a high P/E often reflects investors paying up for forecast earnings growth or viewing current profits as temporarily low.

Almonty Industries currently trades on a P/E of 60.9x. That is well above the estimated fair P/E of 36.4x that the SWS fair ratio model suggests the market could move toward. It is also higher than the US Metals and Mining industry average of 21.3x and above the peer average of 30.2x. This points to investors accepting a sizeable premium to both the sector and the modelled fair level for each dollar of current earnings.

Explore the SWS fair ratio for Almonty Industries

Result: Price-to-earnings of 60.9x (OVERVALUED)

However, Almonty Industries still faces risks if tungsten markets soften, or if its projects in Portugal and South Korea experience operational or permitting setbacks.

Find out about the key risks to this Almonty Industries narrative.

Another view on Almonty Industries using cash flows

The P/E premium around Almonty Industries tells one story. The SWS DCF model tells a different one. At a share price of $16.36, Almonty Industries is trading about 59.4% below an estimated fair value of $40.27 based on future cash flow assumptions.

That gap suggests the earnings based multiple could be putting a heavy price on near term risks, while the cash flow view points to a large upside if those forecasts play out. Which lens do you put more weight on when the signals conflict this much?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

ALM Discounted Cash Flow as at Aug 2026
ALM Discounted Cash Flow as at Aug 2026

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Almonty Industries for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 53 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Next Steps

The mixed signals around Almonty Industries can feel confusing, especially with both risks and potential rewards in play. Act quickly to review the underlying data for yourself and weigh both sides of the story through the 4 key rewards and 4 important warning signs

Looking for more investment ideas beyond Almonty Industries?

If Almonty Industries has sharpened your focus, do not stop here. Use the screener tools to uncover other stocks that fit your goals before the best ideas move on.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.