Zhitong Hong Kong stock market unravels | US dollar weakens, geographical tension, shipping surges, overseas CSP lobbies spur technological boom

[Anatomy Dashboard]

The movie “Cow Lai” became popular over the weekend. Although the rough picture was quite out of line with the current aesthetic, it had a rational side behind the popularity. Simplicity and sincerity to the extreme are also scarce. The meaning is also very good. After all, the stock market has risen today. Hong Kong stocks jumped more than 1.34%.

The unexpected decline in US retail sales in July further strengthened market concerns about the cooling of the US economy. Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius said that due to the effects of cooling inflation and weak employment, etc., the possibility of the Fed's interest rate hike in September is “extremely low”; traders' expectations for the next 25 basis point rate hike by the Federal Reserve have been postponed from December, which was expected a week ago, to January next year. Combined with Iran's hardliners abandoning their fantasies about the US, it was revealed that they are secretly expanding the military war “a new round of confrontation.” The US dollar weakened, and the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar rose above the 6.74 mark in both onshore and offshore markets. Spot gold made a comeback, breaking through 4,400 US dollars/ounce in the intraday market, standing at 4,410 US dollars/ounce. World Gold Group (03939): Its Jinling Gold Mine in Solomon Islands has become the core engine for the company's resource expansion and gold production capacity, rising more than 7%.

Shanghai copper also strengthened at the same time. The price broke through 108,000 yuan/ton, close to the high point during the year, and the price of LME copper remained above 14,000 US dollars/ton. Minmetals Resources (01208) rose more than 7%; China's nonferrous mining industry (01258) rose more than 5%; and the pre-profit of tungsten leader Jiaxin International Resources (03858) in the first half of the year exceeded 1.45 billion yuan and rose nearly 7%.

According to data recently released by Argus, a global energy commodity price evaluation agency, the geopolitical conflict continues to ferment, compounding the drop in water levels due to prolonged droughts in Europe and Latin America, and jointly driving freight rates on key routes such as the Panama Canal, the Rhine River, the Red Sea, and the Black Sea to reach record highs. Recently, the main contract for European freight forwarding surged more than 10% during the intraday period, and Hong Kong stock freight stocks rose across the board. Dexiang Shipping (02510) and Dongfang Overseas International (00316) rose nearly 7%, while COSCO Marine Control (01919) and COSCO Marine Energy (01138) both rose more than 6%.

Overseas CSP lobbying is spreading in the direction of technology: Recently, overseas CSP and Nvidia companies have gradually begun lobbying for the end, and the results are expected to be very good. The FCC's sanctions on optical modules are essentially acts that damage 800 people and self-injure 10,000 people. Optical modules do not have radio frequency transmission capabilities, do not pose a national security threat, and the only complex internal logic circuit is also manufactured by an American company. The presence of these companies will make the FCC more careful and rational in handling this matter. Rationally speaking, China and the US are already deeply tied up; imposing sanctions on any side would be a double loss. Including Apple's purchase of Changxin's memory chips, it is likely that they will be approved. Today, Changxin (688825.SH) took the lead in surging 12%, directly driving the strengthening of technology. Zhongji Xuchuang (03308), Zhaoyi Innovation (03986), Lanqi Technology (06809), and Tianshu Zhixin (09903) all rose more than 8%.

Chips are also being promoted domestically: fiscal and tax concessions for four departments have been implemented, and integrated circuit companies can pay income tax over 5 years to ease cash flow pressure from mergers and acquisitions and equipment replacement, and facilitate the expansion of production and asset restructuring in fabs. The General Administration of Market Regulation approved the issuance of five automotive chip industry standards, establishing the world's first national-level capability evaluation standard system for institutions related to the entire automotive chip industry chain. Chip stocks were once again boosted. Huahong Hongli (01347) and SMIC (00981) rose more than 6%; Crystal Integrated (02249) will show results on August 24, up more than 6%.

Key points of exchange in the PCB upstream resin industry chain mentioned last Friday: the amount of M9 grade hydrocarbon resin was drastically increased, and the usage of M9 was upgraded from 1:2 to 2:1 compared to M8 hydrocarbon resin; the main type of chipboard (09630) surged more than 14%; Jiantao laminated board (01888) increased by more than 9%; Jiantao Group (00148), Shenghong Technology (02476), and Guanghe Technology (01989) increased by more than 6%.

Shangtang-W (00020) announced that it is expected to make a profit of about 500 million yuan to 700 million yuan during the first half of 2026, turning a year-on-year loss into a profit. This will be the first time since Shang Tang was listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to achieve consolidated profits. This profit is based on a combination of investment income, cutting out unprofitable projects, and various cost contractions. The direction of the main business has also improved. We will continue to see if the main AI industry itself can achieve profits. Today it's up almost 9%.

Changfei Optical Fiber (601869.SH) issued a dividend distribution implementation notice: cash dividend of 0.295 yuan per share (tax included), share registration date: 2026-8-20, ex-dividend date: 2026-8-21. The same goes for H shares, converted to Hong Kong dollars. Since its A-share listing in 2018, Changfei Optical has paid dividends every year. The total cash dividend has been distributed over 2 billion yuan, and the dividend payment rate is about 30%, which is equivalent to giving three components of the profit to shareholders. H shares surged more than 12% today.

Yushu Technology is expected to be listed in late August (18-24). Yushu Technology's official Weibo posted an article in the afternoon saying “Superman”: “2 meters high in situ, maximum speed of 12.66 m/s (0.85 meters leg length), surpassing the world's record for in-situ jumping and running speed for all humans. The new machine has just been developed for more than 3 months, and there is still plenty of room for improvement in the next few months.” This is amazing. You need to know that the Jamaican “Flying Man” Bolt set a men's 100 meter world record of 9.58 seconds at the 2009 Berlin World Championships and ran a maximum speed of 12.42 m/s in the 60-80 meter range. The 2026 World Robotics Conference will be held in the Beijing Economic and Technological Development Zone from August 19 to 23. The theme is “Human-robot symbiosis, integration of production and demand”. Today, fermented mainly low-level varieties, such as Yuejiang (02432), rose nearly 7%; Eston (02715), Lansi Technology (06613), Dechang Electric Holdings (00179), and Sanhua Intelligent Control (02050) all rose 4%.

The pharmaceutical direction is also the mainstream direction of the market. The leading drug Ming Kangde (02359) rose another 3% today to a new record high. Gloria Ying (06821) and Zhaoyan Pharmaceutical (06127) rose more than 6%, and Kingsley Biotech (01548): Adjusted net profit increased by 203.3% in the first half of the year, revenue increased 27.3%, and basic business achieved strong growth, up more than 4%.

The market is also continuing to explore the concept of revising the Hang Seng Technology Index. The core elements of this revision include expanding the scope of science and technology topics in the index, adjusting the selection mechanism for constituent stocks, and increasing the number of constituent stocks. Some organizations believe that SMOORE International (06969), Bijiao Technology (06082), Ruisheng Technology (02018), Preferred Choice (09880), and ASMPT (00522) are expected to be included.

[Section Focus]

According to the retail data of the Passenger Federation branch, in the domestic retail sales ranking of new energy models in July 2026, Geely Star wants to rank first with 32,306 vehicles, while the Zero Run A10 and Tesla Model Y rank second and third with 26,424 and 25,158 vehicles respectively. According to data compiled by “Easy Car”, new energy models are completely consistent with the top three pure electric models of the month, indicating that pure electric products are still the main support for the current NEV retail market.

By type, the top three plug-in hybrid models sold in July were BYD Song Pro, Fangchengbao Titanium 7, and BYD Qin PLUS, with sales of 13,757 units, 10,820 units, and 7,568 units, respectively. In terms of extended-range models, the Zhijie V9 ranked first with 8,974 vehicles, followed by the Genie M9 and Zero Sport D19 with 7,389 and 7145 cars respectively.

An important indicator for investing in car companies is to look at sales volume, and only the highest-ranking varieties will be sought after. Main varieties: Geely (00175), Zero Sports (09863), and BYD shares (01211).

[Individual Stock Mining]

BYD Co., Ltd. (01211): Intensive launch of new vehicles to seize energy storage in the middle and low end markets to form a second growth curve

Recently, BYD Ocean Network B-Class fully equipped family sedan, the 2027 Seal 06, was officially launched. It offers pure electric and plug-in hybrid dual-power versions, with a total of 12 models. The official guide price is 99,900 yuan to 155,900 yuan. Today, BYD Equation Leopard officially announced the Titanium 7DM long battery life version, which is positioned as a “science and technology big space SUV”. The launch conference is scheduled for 19:00 on August 18.

Comment: Recently, BYD has intensively launched new models, focusing on seizing the market of around 100,000 and 200,000. Very competitive in terms of cost performance. The global penetration rate of new energy sources continues to rise. Energy storage is a trillion-level incremental track, and the company also occupies a leading position in two booming racetracks.

BYD New Energy accounts for 80% + of passenger vehicle revenue. Dynasty, Ocean, Tense, Equation Bao, and Yew look forward to full price coverage. Hybrid+pure electric dual lines run in parallel, leading the world in new energy sales. The energy storage system is the company's second growth curve. The vast Haohan energy storage, grid side/household optical storage integration. Overseas high gross profit has exploded, and the company's overseas bicycle gross profit is significantly higher than domestic. In 2026, overseas business is expected to contribute nearly 80% of the vehicle's net profit, which is the core increase in profit. Energy storage is simultaneously deployed globally in the Middle East, Europe, and Latin America, and the unique advantages of integrated optical storage solutions are obvious.

Ongoing orders are plentiful, energy storage orders: 2026 is a major overseas order, with the strongest certainty, 1) The UAE's Masdar 11.275GWh energy storage system was launched in July 2026, the world's largest single energy storage procurement contract, supporting 5.2 GW photovoltaic power plants. The industry estimates that the contract size is 44-10.9 billion yuan, delivered in 2027-2028; the battery capacity is equivalent to the battery capacity of 186,000 new energy vehicles. 2) Poland's 600 MW/2.4 GWh energy storage project, the largest lithium battery energy storage power plant in Polish history. Construction began in 2026Q3 and connected to the grid at the end of 2027. European benchmark orders opened up space in the EU energy storage market. 3) Saudi Arabia's 12.5 GWh grid-side energy storage project, previously launched a giant energy storage project in the Middle East, establishing a leading position in the Middle East market.

Vehicle orders: 1) Domestic: Orders for Dynasty, Ocean, Formula Bao, and Tension models are full. The number of second-generation fast charging models arriving in stores has picked up significantly, and the domestic market share is expected to rise to 23%-27% by the end of the year. 2) Overseas vehicles: 792,200 vehicles were delivered overseas in the first half of 2026 (+71% year over year), and the agency expected annual overseas sales volume of 1.5 to 1.8 million units, impacting 2.5 million units in 2027; long-term orders from overseas dealers were locked in, and production capacity in Hungary and Thailand climbed to match delivery demand. 3) Battery external supply: Long-term supply of Tesla, Toyota, Renault, and overseas car companies have stable annual framework agreements, and external supply continues to increase.

The company's 2026 sales agency predicts that new energy vehicles will hit 5 million units and 1.7 million overseas vehicles for the whole year. BYD's overseas markets are growing rapidly, and it has achieved a leading position in markets such as the UK, showing strong long-term competitiveness. Huge orders for energy storage have brought definite revenue.