CITIC Construction Investment: Driverless driving in mining areas is an optimal commercial track for autonomous driving in closed scenarios, and overseas is expected to open up a second growth curve

The Zhitong Finance App learned that CITIC Construction Investment released a research report saying that autonomous driving in mining areas is different from Robotaxi. Closed scenarios, rigid employment requirements, and clear cost reduction and efficiency value make the commercialization path more clear, and the industry is expected to enter the S acceleration phase after the penetration rate exceeds 10%. The domestic stock of nearly 100,000 mining cards provides room for continuous transformation. The expansion of large-scale coal mine fleets, the replication of metal mine projects, and the sinking of small and medium-sized mines will support domestic market growth; the value of bicycle services in high-labor cost markets such as overseas Australia is significantly higher than domestic, and is expected to open up a second growth curve.

CITIC Construction Investment's main views are as follows:

Driven by policy, manpower and efficiency, mining areas take the lead in commercializing L4

Compared with urban Robotaxi, the supervision of autonomous driving in mining areas is more clear, and the technology implementation path is more definitive. It mainly solves the problems of difficult recruitment for high-risk jobs and high continuous operation costs, and is more commercially acceptable. The policy side continues to promote intelligent mining and robot replacement for dangerous positions; on the economic side, driverless driving can reduce bicycle labor costs by about 180,000 per year, with clear cost reduction space; on the operating side, unmanned mining cards can achieve continuous operation around the clock to improve vehicle utilization; and on the safety side, reduce the risk of accidents by reducing personnel entering high-risk transportation areas.

Industrial chain collaboration resonates with domestic and foreign demand, and unmanned mining cards have entered the stage of large-scale development

The number of domestic mining cards is close to 100,000, and the unmanned penetration rate is still low. Coal mines currently constitute the main application scenario, and metal mines and large gravel mines are expected to contribute to subsequent increases; as the industry penetration rate exceeds 10%, the domestic unmanned mining card scale is expected to reach 20,000 units in 2030, corresponding to a technical service market of about 4 billion yuan, and the overall market space exceeds 5 billion yuan. In overseas markets, with high labor costs and a mature automation foundation, the annual service value of bicycles can reach 2 million yuan, while resource-based markets such as Central Asia, Indonesia, and South America provide large-scale overseas space for domestic solution providers.

Easy control, light asset replication, acceleration, technology and overseas two-wheel drive

The company's revenue in 2025 reached 1,435 billion yuan and 2,580 active unmanned mining trucks. The customer fleet revenue share rose to 56.8%, and the business model continued to change from one to another; it built a full-stack technology system based on “Zushan+Kurena+Imperial Stone”, covering more than 70 models, and formed a closed data loop through the operation of more than 30 mining areas to strengthen cross-model and cross-mine replication capabilities. The expansion of large-scale domestic mines and the sinking of small and medium-sized mines provide continuous growth. The Australian project has entered actual production. The annual service value of bicycles is expected to reach 1 to 2 million yuan, and the overseas high-value market is expected to become the second growth curve.

risk analysis

The increase in the penetration rate of autonomous driving in mining areas falls short of expectations; the promotion of asset-light business models falls short of expectations; the concentration of domestic large-scale mining customers falls short of expectations; technological iteration and complex scenarios fall short of expectations; profitability is under pressure due to increased industry competition; overseas high-value service fee levels fall short of expectations; profit improvement falls short of expectations due to continued increase in R&D and overseas investment; risk of changes in mine safety supervision and autonomous driving policies.