Orient Securities: Fourfold changes in cross-border e-commerce drive reversals can keenly seize dividends, companies take the lead

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Oriental Securities released a research report saying that cross-border e-commerce is a long-term expedition. From Chinese cross-border sellers competing on Amazon in 2013, to now that Chinese e-commerce platforms such as Shein and Temu are sailing overseas, ten years at a glance, the competitive landscape of cross-border e-commerce is undergoing a new round of reshaping. The bank believes that under the image of a platform game is a deep competition of business models. Only cross-border e-commerce companies with strong brand assets and can keenly capture the growth dividends of new regions, new platforms, and new categories can take the lead in the changing situation.

Orient Securities's main views are as follows:

After more than ten years of development, from a niche circuit to a trillion-dollar market

1) Cross-border e-commerce (mainly discussing exports) originated from the B2B model in the 1990s and extended to the B2C model. After a period of inception (before 2010), rapid expansion (2010-19), and integration (2020-25), it is entering a new stage of high-quality development. 2) Cross-border e-commerce is divided into B2B and B2C according to transaction models, self-built independent websites and third-party platforms according to trading platforms, and quality and general products according to product selection strategies. 3) According to ECDB, global cross-border e-commerce revenue exceeded 1 trillion US dollars in 2024, and is expected to exceed 1.2 trillion US dollars in 2026, a CAGR of about 10%; the size of China's cross-border export e-commerce market is also growing steadily, about 2.27 trillion yuan in 2025. The bank believes there is room for doubling. 4) The bank estimates that the total market share of leading cross-border e-commerce businesses increased from 3.52% to 4.99% in 2021-25. The market is still highly fragmented. In the future, leading companies will further enhance and consolidate barriers by optimizing the supply chain, strengthening brand power, and enhancing digital capabilities.

The industry has changed four times and entered a new boom cycle

1) Supply side: Tax supervision has experienced a profound transformation from extensive to accurate, from spot checks to penetration. In the past, the behavior of some cross-border sellers underreported or underreported taxes and competed at low prices overseas was unsustainable; the bank observed that the concentration of Amazon 3P sellers continued to rise, and leading companies expanded their operations and increased their share. 2) Tariffs: US tariffs on China were significantly reduced year-on-year in 2026Q2-Q3 (tariffs affect factors such as inventory/profitability/cash flow), and tariff rebates are progressing steadily, and industry profitability will recover. 3) Inventory: Through dismantling indicators such as inventory share, the bank found that since 2020, cross-border e-commerce has experienced two rounds of inventory collection and removal cycles. Currently, some companies have experienced inventory and profit inflection points, and inventory management capabilities are expected to be further strengthened after multiple cycles. 4) IPOs: Recently, Hong Kong Stock Exchange 1+ Beijing Stock Exchange 1 + Shenzhen Stock Exchange 3 (prospectuses have been submitted or listed), and there are still companies planning IPOs. This round of IPOs mainly confirms industry trends with brand companies.

Expanding channels, expanding regions, and expanding categories is still the main line, and the rise of leaders has their own advantages

1) Channel comparison: Moving from the Amazon channel to a multi-platform strategy. Among them, Anker/Lvlian/Zhiyan have grown from Amazon brands to global brands, with offline+independent website channels leading the way; to European SC+VC. 2) Regional comparison: From deep cultivation in Europe and the US to multi-regional layout, Huakai/Anke/Greenlian/Jihong accounts for less than 50% of the revenue in the largest region, and the ability to operate across regions is the key. 3) Category comparison: Brand companies focus on core category+expand emerging categories. Panproduct companies consolidated the basic market+layout of the brand business, and some companies are beginning to see results. 4) Growth rate comparison: Anker/Greenlink's 2021-25 revenue/net profit growth rate is the highest. The core is strong R&D/brand operation+long-term talent incentives. Some companies fluctuated due to the triple factors of tariff/shipping/exchange rate. 5) Comparison of operating efficiency: As a result, EU/Anker/Greenlink has the highest per capita income generation. In the future, we can focus on AI's ability to empower the business; Focus/Greenline/Anke has relatively strong exchange rate control capabilities.

Risk warning: tariff risk, exchange rate risk, shipping and logistics risk, industry competition risk.