CICC: The market is paying more attention to performance certainty and is focusing on two main lines

Zhitongcaijing · 2d ago

The Zhitong Finance App learned that CICC released a research report saying that as market risk appetite is gradually fixed and the performance period approaches, the market's attention to performance certainty increases, and profit cashability may become a core variable. It is recommended to focus on areas and companies with strong performance certainty. Focus on the two main lines: 1) Boom growth still requires careful selection: the level of congestion in the technology sector has declined markedly after adjustment; industries with high enough prosperity can achieve high molecular growth to hedge against denominator side drag; AI infrastructure-related links, such as optical communication, PCB, etc., the high boom state is still highly deterministic this year, and companies with more fields such as semiconductors and computing power still need to pay attention to the degree of matching between fundamentals and valuations. After technology growth, the market may show a differentiation trend; the market may show a trend of differentiation after technological growth; the market may show a trend of differentiation after technological growth; the market may show a trend of differentiation after technological growth; the market may show a trend of differentiation after technological growth; the market may show a trend of differentiation after technological growth; the market may show a trend of differentiation after technological growth; the market may show a trend of differentiation after technological growth; the market may show a trend of differentiation after technological growth; the market may show a trend of differentiation after technological growth; the market may show a trend of differentiation after technological growth; Follow it up.

2) Cycle improvement: Fundamentals in more and more fields are recovering from the bottom of the cycle. It is recommended to comprehensively consider the geographical situation and production capacity cycle position, and focus on areas where performance is improving and the supply and demand pattern is improving, such as power grid equipment, petrochemicals, construction machinery, and non-bank finance industries that benefit from improving capital markets; the precious metals sector is also worth paying attention to after experiencing more adjustments. The fundamental recovery in the pure domestic demand industry is still progressing relatively slowly and requires further observation.

CICC's main views are as follows:

The end of August will soon usher in the peak period of disclosure of interim results. As of August 14, 2026, about 4.8% of listed companies in the A-share market have disclosed their 2026 interim reports, which is similar to the same period in 2025; when combined with the quick performance reports, about 9.3% of listed companies have disclosed basic performance information. After fluctuations since July, investors' risk appetite was gradually fixed, and attention to interim results increased markedly.

A-share non-financial growth is expected to achieve double-digit growth in the first half of 2026. Currently (as of August 14), among listed companies that have disclosed their 2026 interim reports or performance reports, the net profit growth rate for the first half of 2026 was about 23.5%. Among them, financial/non-financial net profit growth rates were about 8.1%/28.4%, respectively, and the net profit growth rate of the Main Board/GEM/Science and Technology Innovation Board was about 15.6%/69.8%/207.0%, respectively. Previously, in the first quarter of 2026, total A/financial/non-financial net profit increased by 7.2%/2.2%/11.7% respectively. Judging from macro data, the profit of industrial enterprises above scale in the first half of 2026 was +18.7%, a further increase from the 15.5% growth rate in January-March; in terms of prices, the CPI remained 1% or above in the second quarter of 2026, and PPI rose markedly year on year; on the consumer side, due to the weakening effect of the trade-in policy and high base, social zero grew 1.3% year-on-year in January-June 2026, which slowed down compared with the 2.4% growth rate in January-March; in terms of real estate, the decline in commercial housing sales area increased slightly in the second quarter of 2026, but the decline in sales narrowed slightly; In terms of external demand, the export value from January to June 2026 was +17.6% year-on-year. Compared with +14.7% in January-March, external demand is still quite resilient. Based on current performance disclosure progress and macro-data performance, the 2026 interim profit growth rate is expected to be flat and slightly higher than the first quarter report, and A-share non-financial growth is expected to achieve double-digit growth in the first half of the year. According to CICC's incomplete statistics covering A-share companies (about 748 companies), the overall net profit of A-shares in a single quarter is expected to grow at a year-on-year rate of about +19.0%/+21.0%/+15.4% for the second quarter.

At the industry level, in the financial sector, non-banks are expected to continue to benefit from high market activity; in the non-financial sector, some upstream industries benefit from rising prices, technology and hardware continue to benefit from AI industry trends, while domestic consumption and real estate are still weak. According to the data of listed companies that have disclosed 2026 interim reports or performance reports so far, 23 of the 31 Tier 1 industries have improved their 2026 interim profit growth rate compared to 2025. Among them, profits in industries such as steel, petroleum and petrochemicals, defense and military, electronics, and non-ferrous metals grew at a high year-on-year rate, while profits in real estate and other industries still declined significantly year-on-year.

Specifically: 1) In the upstream sector, price increases are expected to help improve the performance of midstream and upstream resource products, and there is strong certainty in some non-ferrous metals and oil and gas chemical industries. The year-on-year growth rate of PPI rose rapidly in the second quarter. The main driving forces include: oil prices and some chemical prices rose due to changes in the overseas geographical situation; AI demand led to a rise in the price of some technology hardware such as storage; a steady rise in copper prices; and the price of aluminum remained high. However, rising prices led to a rise in market expectations of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike, and gold prices for precious metals declined overall in the second quarter. At the same time, construction materials are affected by the weakness of the real estate industry, and performance may continue to be under pressure. 2) In the midstream segment, domestic and foreign demand continues to be differentiated, and the export sector continues to be supported by external demand. The year-on-year growth rate of China's exports in the second quarter increased further compared to the first quarter. External demand-related fields such as power equipment, new energy and AI infrastructure (batteries, energy storage, etc.) are expected to continue to be booming, but profits in traditional general and special equipment, automobiles, and some machinery industries may still be under pressure. 3) In the downstream sector, domestic demand consumption still needs to be improved. The zero growth rate of society slowed further in the second quarter. Trade and retail, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishing, textiles and apparel as a whole may be relatively lackluster, but some segments, such as innovative pharmaceuticals, aquaculture, and home appliances, which account for a large share of overseas exports, are expected to outperform the overall performance of the consumer sector. 4) In the TMT section, AI industry trends continue, which is expected to continue to support the sector's boom. The AI industry continued to rapidly iterate in the first half of the year. AI demand continued to drive up the price of technology and hardware such as storage. Orders for high-end computing power chips, memory chips, optical communications, PCBs, and servers were sufficient, and profits in electronics and other related sectors are expected to continue to rise high. We will continue to monitor the disclosure of results in the future.

Chart 1: The disclosure progress of the 2026 interim report is about 4.8%