According to Mark Cranfield, a real-time strategist for the Singaporean market, news continues to circulate, indicating that the Bank of Japan is likely to raise interest rates early at the September interest rate meeting, and the market judges that the Japanese government will probably not block it at that time. However, the current exchange rate of the US dollar against the yen is still stable at the 159 integer mark. This shows that a single 25 basis point rate hike alone is not enough to reverse the market's bullish trend of the US dollar and bearish on the yen. Traders will only completely switch to bullish the yen if they decide that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates twice in a row. However, every time the Bank of Japan adjusts its monetary policy, it takes a long time to guide market expectations, and it is extremely difficult to achieve market consensus on continuous interest rate hikes. Although interest rate futures pricing shows a high probability of interest rate hikes in September, the market still holds large net short positions in yen. The market logic is clear: even if the dollar falls short term against the yen after the Bank of Japan's decision is implemented, once the market refocuses on Japan's deeply negative real interest rates and the continuing appeal of arbitrage trading, the exchange rate between the US and Japan will return to an upward channel. Also, although Japan interfered in the foreign exchange market on a large scale this month, it still held the 155 mark. As long as the USD/JPY pair fails to fall strongly below the key support of 155, speculative capital that shorted the yen will not leave the market on a large scale.

According to Mark Cranfield, a real-time strategist for the Singaporean market, news continues to circulate, indicating that the Bank of Japan is likely to raise interest rates early at the September interest rate meeting, and the market judges that the Japanese government will probably not block it at that time. However, the current exchange rate of the US dollar against the yen is still stable at the 159 integer mark. This shows that a single 25 basis point rate hike alone is not enough to reverse the market's bullish trend of the US dollar and bearish on the yen. Traders will only completely switch to bullish the yen if they decide that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates twice in a row. However, every time the Bank of Japan adjusts its monetary policy, it takes a long time to guide market expectations, and it is extremely difficult to achieve market consensus on continuous interest rate hikes. Although interest rate futures pricing shows a high probability of interest rate hikes in September, the market still holds large net short positions in yen. The market logic is clear: even if the dollar falls short term against the yen after the Bank of Japan's decision is implemented, once the market refocuses on Japan's deeply negative real interest rates and the continuing appeal of arbitrage trading, the exchange rate between the US and Japan will return to an upward channel. Also, although Japan interfered in the foreign exchange market on a large scale this month, it still held the 155 mark. As long as the USD/JPY pair fails to fall strongly below the key support of 155, speculative capital that shorted the yen will not leave the market on a large scale.