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NVIDIA (NVDA) Could Be 20% Undervalued As AI Growth Narrative Holds

Simply Wall St · 1d ago

IREN Limited’s announcement that Microsoft has accepted its Horizon 1 data center, tested on NVIDIA (NVDA) GB300 NVL72 hardware and granted Exemplar Cloud status, gives investors another real-world reference point for NVIDIA’s AI infrastructure footprint.

See our latest analysis for NVIDIA.

NVIDIA’s recent run of AI infrastructure deals, including the Microsoft backed IREN deployment and new financing platforms with major asset managers, has been accompanied by a 30 day share price return of 11.02% and a 5 year total shareholder return of 985.41%. This performance indicates that momentum remains notable even after some shorter term cooling.

If NVIDIA’s AI build out has your attention, it can also be useful to see how other enablers of this trend are trading right now through 55 AI infrastructure stocks

NVIDIA’s shares are up strongly over five years; however, the stock now trades only around 3% below one intrinsic value estimate and more than 30% below the average analyst target. So where does fair value really sit today?

Most Popular Narrative: 19.6% Undervalued

The most followed narrative currently places NVIDIA’s fair value at $280, which sits meaningfully above the last close at $225.16 and frames the stock as undervalued on that basis.

NVIDIA isn’t just riding the AI wave; it built the surfboard, owns the beach, and sells sunscreen. With a wide moat powered by proprietary hardware, exclusive software, and first-mover scale, NVIDIA is as close to a pure-play on the AI industrial revolution as it gets.

Read the complete narrative.

The narrative leans heavily on data center growth, software like CUDA, and very high margins. It also bakes in strong earnings expansion and a rich future profit multiple. Curious which specific growth and profitability assumptions are driving that $280 figure and 19.6% discount label.

Result: Fair Value of $280 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, even a confident NVIDIA pitch has pressure points, including customer concentration in a few hyperscalers and any reset in growth or margin expectations that underpins that $280 fair value.

Find out about the key risks to this NVIDIA narrative.

Next Steps

With mixed sentiment around NVIDIA’s potential and risks, it can help to move quickly and stress test the numbers yourself to decide where you stand. To see both sides in one place, review the 4 key rewards and 2 important warning signs

Looking for more investment ideas beyond NVIDIA?

If NVIDIA has sharpened your interest in AI and infrastructure, do not stop here. Use these targeted stock ideas to pressure test your thesis and potentially spot overlooked opportunities.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.