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ANZ Group Holdings (ASX:ANZ) Could Be 21% Overvalued On Its Q3 2026 Update

Simply Wall St · 1d ago

The latest move in ANZ Group Holdings (ASX:ANZ) follows its Q3 2026 Sales and Trading Statement Call on 13 August, where management shared fresh financial and operational details that investors are now evaluating.

See our latest analysis for ANZ Group Holdings.

The Q3 update comes after a period of firm momentum for ANZ Group Holdings, with a 7.40% 1 month share price return and a 10.45% 3 month share price return. The 1 year total shareholder return of 22.90% and 3 year total shareholder return of 87.53% point to sustained gains rather than a short lived reaction to a single event.

If ANZ Group Holdings has you looking more closely at financials, it could be a good moment to broaden your watchlist with 4 top founder-led companies

Bulls point to ANZ Group Holdings’ recent returns and solid Q3 headline numbers. Bears worry the price already reflects the good news. The next step is to test which side the current valuation actually supports.

Most Popular Narrative: 20.9% Overvalued

The latest narrative fair value for ANZ Group Holdings of A$32.18 sits below the last close at A$38.89. That gap has sharpened investor focus on the assumptions behind the story.

At A$32.162 per share, ANZ (ASX: ANZ) appears reasonably valued based on its current operating performance. Cash earnings per share were 126.1 cents for the six months to 31 March 2026; annualising this figure implies approximately 252 cents per share and a price-to-earnings multiple of around 12.8 times. The most recent 83 cent interim dividend, together with the preceding 83 cent final dividend, represents a trailing cash yield of approximately 5.2% at the assessed price, before considering the partial franking credits.

Read the complete narrative.

According to Jamesiskindacool, this ANZ Group Holdings narrative leans heavily on current earnings power, capital strength and dividend flows. It largely sidelines any upside from Suncorp Bank integration, further efficiency gains or shifts in margins. Curious which assumptions keep the fair value anchored despite those potential swing factors?

Result: Fair Value of A$32.18 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, ANZ Group Holdings still faces risks if loan quality weakens or if Suncorp Bank integration and cost control progress differently from current expectations.

Find out about the key risks to this ANZ Group Holdings narrative.

Another View on ANZ Group Holdings’ Value

While the user narrative points to ANZ Group Holdings trading around 20.9% above its A$32.18 fair value estimate, the SWS DCF model suggests something different. At A$38.89, ANZ is 3.3% below the A$40.24 fair value. That is a small cushion. Is it enough for you?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

ANZ Discounted Cash Flow as at Aug 2026
ANZ Discounted Cash Flow as at Aug 2026

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out ANZ Group Holdings for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 10 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Next Steps

With both risks and rewards on the table for ANZ Group Holdings, now is a good time to look at the data yourself and stress test your view against 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs

Looking for more ideas beyond ANZ Group Holdings?

If ANZ Group Holdings has sharpened your focus, do not stop here. Use the Simply Wall St Screener to hunt for fresh opportunities that fit your style.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.