Results: Samsonite Group S.A. Beat Earnings Expectations And Analysts Now Have New Forecasts
Samsonite Group S.A. (HKG:1910) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 4.8% to HK$13.22 in the week after its latest quarterly results. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of US$852m were in line with what the analysts predicted, Samsonite Group surprised by delivering a statutory profit of US$0.042 per share, a notable 20% above expectations. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.
Following last week's earnings report, Samsonite Group's twelve analysts are forecasting 2026 revenues to be US$3.53b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to dip 9.2% to US$0.17 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$3.58b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.18 in 2026. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a small dip in their earnings per share forecasts.
Check out our latest analysis for Samsonite Group
The average price target fell 6.2% to HK$18.71, with reduced earnings forecasts clearly tied to a lower valuation estimate. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Samsonite Group analyst has a price target of HK$21.43 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at HK$15.00. With such a wide range in price targets, analysts are almost certainly betting on widely divergent outcomes in the underlying business. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Samsonite Group's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that Samsonite Group's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 0.8% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 12% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 7.0% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Samsonite Group is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Samsonite Group analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Plus, you should also learn about the 2 warning signs we've spotted with Samsonite Group .
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.