Earnings Update: Riskified Ltd. (NYSE:RSKD) Just Reported And Analysts Are Boosting Their Estimates
Shareholders will be ecstatic, with their stake up 22% over the past week following Riskified Ltd.'s (NYSE:RSKD) latest quarterly results. Riskified beat revenue forecasts by a solid 11%, hitting US$99m. Statutory losses also blew out, with the loss per share reaching US$0.07, some 28% bigger than the analysts expected. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
After the latest results, the six analysts covering Riskified are now predicting revenues of US$406.5m in 2026. If met, this would reflect a meaningful 10% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 57% to US$0.046. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$380.2m and losses of US$0.047 per share in 2026.
See our latest analysis for Riskified
The consensus price target rose 19% to US$6.70, with the analysts encouraged by the improved revenue outlook even though the company remains lossmaking. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Riskified analyst has a price target of US$7.50 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$5.50. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Riskified is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. The analysts are definitely expecting Riskified's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 22% annualised growth to the end of 2026 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 11% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 17% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Riskified to grow faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. Happily, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and are forecasting them to grow faster than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Riskified analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.
You can also see our analysis of Riskified's Board and CEO remuneration and experience, and whether company insiders have been buying stock.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.