As the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continues, as of the press release on August 14, the main NYMEX WTI crude oil futures contract was 82 US dollars/barrel, and spot gold was reported at 4342.95 US dollars/ounce, while industrial metals copper, aluminum, and zinc have taken turns strengthening since this year due to supply constraints on the mine side. The impact of the geographical situation is deepening, and in the context of the commodity market facing a new equilibrium, the trading logic of crude oil, gold, and industrial metals has also changed. Chen Li, chief economist and research director of Chuancai Securities, said that the current geographical situation has been upgraded from a “disturbing variable” to a “pricing core” to reshape the logic of commodity trading. The safe-haven and reserve allocation value of gold has been further highlighted. Crude oil is vulnerable to disturbances in production areas and shipping channels, increasing risk premiums, while strategic premiums for basic metals such as copper and aluminum have increased due to superimposed supply chain safety considerations. The ability to interpret traditional economic cycle frameworks and supply and demand frameworks has weakened, and prices fluctuate nonlinearly, driven by news. To observe the market, it is necessary not only to track traditional factors such as supply, demand, and currency, but also to pay attention to the impact of the geographical situation on supply and trade circulation, rationally screen risk premiums, objectively grasp the structural differentiation of varieties, and prevent the risk of market fluctuations caused by extreme events.

As the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continues, as of the press release on August 14, the main NYMEX WTI crude oil futures contract was 82 US dollars/barrel, and spot gold was reported at 4342.95 US dollars/ounce, while industrial metals copper, aluminum, and zinc have taken turns strengthening since this year due to supply constraints on the mine side. The impact of the geographical situation is deepening, and in the context of the commodity market facing a new equilibrium, the trading logic of crude oil, gold, and industrial metals has also changed. Chen Li, chief economist and research director of Chuancai Securities, said that the current geographical situation has been upgraded from a “disturbing variable” to a “pricing core” to reshape the logic of commodity trading. The safe-haven and reserve allocation value of gold has been further highlighted. Crude oil is vulnerable to disturbances in production areas and shipping channels, increasing risk premiums, while strategic premiums for basic metals such as copper and aluminum have increased due to superimposed supply chain safety considerations. The ability to interpret traditional economic cycle frameworks and supply and demand frameworks has weakened, and prices fluctuate nonlinearly, driven by news. To observe the market, it is necessary not only to track traditional factors such as supply, demand, and currency, but also to pay attention to the impact of the geographical situation on supply and trade circulation, rationally screen risk premiums, objectively grasp the structural differentiation of varieties, and prevent the risk of market fluctuations caused by extreme events.