Kerui Real Estate Research: The year-on-year decline in new housing transactions in 15 key cities across the country narrowed in July, highlighting the high resilience of second-hand housing
The Zhitong Finance App learned that in July 2026, Kerui Real Estate Research published an article stating that in July 2026, the real estate market entered the traditional seasonal low season, showing the overall operating characteristics of “receding in the off-season for new homes and stable resilience in second-hand housing”. Supply and demand for new homes in key cities weakened at the same time month-on-month, and market popularity declined markedly from the impulse at the end of June. At the same time, second-hand housing maintained a high level of operation, supported by replacement demand and driven by “price for volume,” and continued to increase positively year over year. It is expected that supply and transactions in the new housing market will continue to weaken month-on-month in August; second-hand housing relied on replacement demand to remain high, but it may continue to decline slightly month-on-month.
1. Overall overview: New homes are declining seasonally, and the share of second-hand housing has stabilized at nearly 70%
In July 2026, the total volume of housing market (new building+used) transactions in the 13 key cities was about 18.88,800 square meters, down 11.56% month-on-month and 7.03% year-on-year. Among them, newly built commercial residential transactions were 5.669,500 square meters, down 22.74% from the previous month and a slight increase of 1.76% from the previous year; second-hand residential transactions were 13.2093 million square meters, down 5.7% from the previous month and up 9.47% from the previous year. Second-hand repairs were significantly stronger than new homes.
At the structural level, the share of second-hand residential transactions in 13 cities reached 69.97%, up 4.35 percentage points from June (65.62%), maintaining an absolute share of nearly 70%, solidifying the second-hand dominant pattern; the share of new homes was only 30.03%, a further decline from the previous month (34.38%), and the trend of demand being skewed towards the stock market has not changed.
Figure 1 Trends in the transaction area of newly built and second-hand housing in 13 key cities across the country from January 2025 to July 2026
Data source: CRIC China Real Estate Decision Consulting System.
Scope of 13 cities: Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, Chengdu, Xi'an, Wuhan, Tianjin, Nanjing, Suzhou, Chongqing, and Foshan.
2. Newly built commercial housing market: supply fell by more than 30% month-on-month, and the year-on-year decline in transactions narrowed to 1.6%
1. Overall supply and demand: supply fell 35.95% month-on-month, and the average transaction price structurally increased 7.64% year-on-year
In July, the supply and transactions of newly built commercial residential homes in 15 cities both declined, and the decline in supply was significantly greater than sales, and the supply-demand ratio declined further. According to CRIC monitoring, the supply of 3.695,400 square meters was added in the same month, down 35.95% from the previous month, down 27.32%; the transaction was 6.026,200 square meters, down 22.51% from the previous month, a slight decrease of 1.63% from the previous year; the supply-demand ratio was 0.61, which was narrower than 0.74 in June, and the short-term inventory accumulation rate slowed down.
The sharp contraction on the supply side is, on the one hand, affected by the decline in traditional off-season marketing intentions, and housing enterprises generally slow down the pace of entering the market; on the other hand, it also reflects the adoption of a “sell to fix production and run fast in small steps” promotion strategy against the backdrop of sales pressure and tight capital. Judging from the cumulative data, the cumulative supply in 15 cities from January to July 2026 fell by about 23.40% year on year, and the contraction trend continued throughout the year.
The month-on-month decline at the transaction end is in line with seasonal patterns, but the year-on-year decline has narrowed to 1.63%, which is significantly narrower than the cumulative decline in the first half of the year, showing signs that the bottom of the market is stabilizing. On a monthly basis, the year-on-year decline in new housing transactions has narrowed since April. It briefly remained flat in May, fell 6.18% year on year in June, and further narrowed to 1.63% in July. The characteristics of low stabilization are quite obvious.
In terms of price, the average price of newly built commercial housing transactions in July 15 was 2,9365 yuan/square meter, down 3.21% from the previous month and up 7.64% from the previous year. The year-on-year positive price increase was mainly driven by centralized filing of high-quality projects in the core sectors of first-tier cities and strong second-tier cities such as Hangzhou.
Figure 2 Supply and demand volume and price trends of newly built commercial housing in 15 key cities across the country from January 2025 to July 2026
Data source: CRIC China Real Estate Decision Consulting System; Statistical Caliber: Commercial housing, including residences, villas, and serviced apartments.
Scope of 15 cities: Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, Chengdu, Xi'an, Wuhan, Tianjin, Nanjing, Suzhou, Chongqing, Hefei, Changsha, and Foshan.
From an urban perspective, the newly built commercial housing transactions in the city on July 15 showed obvious regional differentiation characteristics. The top three cities by transaction area are all located in the Midwest, namely Chengdu (771,600 square meters), Chongqing (649,300 square meters), and Xi'an (583,800 square meters). The three cities sold a total of 2.047 million square meters, accounting for about 33% of the total volume of the 15 cities. Guangzhou (526,500 square meters) and Tianjin (501,500 square meters) followed, with Guangzhou relatively leading in transaction volume among first-tier cities.
Figure 3 Supply and demand volume and price performance of newly built commercial housing in 15 key cities across the country in July 2026
Data source: CRIC China Real Estate Decision Consulting System.
The year-on-year performance differentiation was particularly significant. Driven by the low base for the same period last year and the centralized filing of some projects this month, Suzhou ranked first with a year-on-year increase of 83.13%; followed by Shenzhen and Nanjing, with increases of more than 30%, and market recovery momentum is relatively strong. On the other hand, Changsha fell sharply by 51.66% year on year, and market adjustment pressure was relatively prominent.
On a month-on-month basis, only the three cities of Chengdu (+13.17%), Xi'an (+5.58%), and Hefei (+45.56%) achieved positive month-on-month growth, while the remaining 12 cities all declined month-on-month, reflecting the prevalence of overall market cooling in July. Among them, Hangzhou (-50.16%), Shanghai (-47.15%), Changsha (-41.44%), and Wuhan (-38.99%) saw significant month-on-month declines.
Looking at the volume price bureau, the average transaction price in Beijing is 54,661 yuan/square meter, Shanghai 8,2,413 yuan/square meter, and Shenzhen 6,9932 yuan/square meter, forming the first tier of prices; among them, the price reduction in Shanghai increased by 13.13% month-on-month in July, showing a typical structural upward shift. In Hefei, Chengdu, and Xi'an, volume increases and prices are flat, and the characteristics of “price for volume” are obvious.
Table 1. Transaction area and changes of newly built commercial housing in 15 key cities across the country in July 2026 (unit: 10,000 square meters)
Data source: CRIC China Real Estate Decision Consulting System.
2. Transaction structure: the main area of 90-130 square meters accounts for more than 50%, and the “area center” of the apartment type continues to move upward
In July, the transaction structure of newly built commercial housing in 15 cities showed marginal changes in “just need to pick up, improve and decline.” According to CRIC monitoring, the number of units sold under 90 square meters accounted for 19.03%, up 0.85 percentage points from June; 90-110 square meters accounted for 25.68%, which was basically the same; 110-130 square meters accounted for 24.85%, down 0.37 percentage points from the previous month; 130-150 square meters accounted for 17.56%, a slight increase of 0.20 percentage points; 150 square meters or more accounted for 12.87%, down 0.81 percentage points from the previous month. The decline in the proportion of large apartments above 150 square meters is mainly directly related to the decrease in the number of high-end projects promoted this month.
Looking at the longer cycle, the 90-130 square meter area was the main transaction force, accounting for a total share of about 50.5%, an increase of about 0.95 percentage points over the previous year. The area of 130-150 square meters and above 150 square meters increased by 0.8 and 0.6 percentage points, respectively, while the area area below 90 square meters decreased by 2.36 percentage points year on year. Structural changes show that under the dual effects of total price restrictions and the “good house” standard upgrade, the market share of products just needed to shift to improved ones. 110-130 square meters and 130-150 square meters became the biggest incremental source, and the “area center” continued to move upward.
Figure 4 Changes in the proportion of newly built commercial residential units sold by area in 15 key cities across the country from January 2025 to July 2026
Data source: CRIC China Real Estate Decision Consulting System.
By city, there are large differences in the transaction structure of each area segment, and it is closely related to the city's energy level, housing price level, and supply and demand structure. Among first-tier cities, Shenzhen accounts for 44.0% of the 90㎡ or less, Guangzhou is 37.7%, and Beijing is 25.0%, reflecting the characteristics of high housing price cities that just need small apartments; Shanghai has 90-110 square meters as the main force (40.0%), with 90 square meters or less accounting for only 9.4%, which is related to its product supply structure and demand for improvement.
Among the strong second-tier cities, Hangzhou accounts for 31.4% of 150 square meters or more, and Suzhou accounts for 30.1%. The demand for high-end improvements is significantly higher than other cities, which is related to the concentration of high-net-worth people and sufficient supply of improved products; Xi'an showed a clear preference for large apartments, with 130-150 square meters accounting for 32.0% and above 150 square meters accounting for 21.3%, in total over 50%, reflecting that the local market is dominated by improved demand. The proportion of 130-150 square meters in Changsha is 42.6%, the highest in any city. It is directly related to its low housing prices and outstanding cost performance for large apartment products.
Table 2 Percentage of newly built commercial residential units sold by area in 15 key cities nationwide in July 2026
Data source: CRIC China Real Estate Decision Consulting System.
3. Inventory removal: Inventory area decreased by 4.12% month-on-month, and the removal cycle fell back to 22.3 months
In July, the total inventory of newly built commercial housing in 15 cities declined month-on-month, but the removal cycle is still high, and there is significant differentiation between cities. According to CRIC monitoring, as of the end of July, the inventory area of newly built commercial residential homes in 15 cities was 148.699 million square meters, down 4.12% from the previous month and 3.80% from the previous year; the removal cycle was 22.3 months, which was 0.9 months narrower than the previous month, and 4.6 months longer than the previous year. The month-on-month decline in inventories was mainly driven by a sharp contraction in supply, and the gap between supply and demand drove passive inventory removal.
Figure 5 Changes in the inventory and removal cycle of newly built commercial housing in 15 key cities across the country from January 2025 to July 2026
Data source: CRIC China Real Estate Decision Consulting System.
There is significant differentiation between cities. The three cities of Chongqing (8.0 months), Hangzhou (10.2 months), and Hefei (12.9 months) are below the 18-month warning line and are in a relatively healthy range; nine cities, including Shanghai, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Nanjing, and Wuhan, are in the 18-30 month de-chemical pressure range; Beijing, Chengdu, and Foshan all have decontamination cycles of more than 30 months, and the risk of inventory accumulation is high.
It is worth noting that although Chengdu was the city with the highest transaction area in July, its inventory size reached 23.378,500 square meters, the largest of the 15 cities, and the removal cycle was as high as 32.1 months, reflecting its coexisting pattern of “high transaction and high inventory” — the market capacity is large but the supply backlog is just as serious, and the pressure to remove it cannot be ignored. Foshan's inventory is 10.889 million square meters, and the removal cycle is 32.0 months, which is related to its industrial population falling short of expectations and weak demand support. Beijing has an inventory of 11.579,600 square meters, and the removal cycle is 30.5 months. It is mainly dragged down by the inventory backlog in remote suburbs.
Figure 6 Cross-analysis of supply, demand and removal of newly built commercial housing in 15 key national cities in July 2026
Data source: CRIC China Real Estate Decision Consulting System.
Note: The bubble size represents the inventory area.
4. Project performance: Demand market leads the area list, high-end market monopoly amount list, industry concentration continues to rise
Judging from the top 10 projects with a transaction area, the leading projects are still dominated by core cities that have just been reformed and are in demand, and the regional concentration is high. Chengdu had the best performance, dominating 3 seats, with Wuhan taking 2 seats, and Changsha, Tianjin, Xi'an, Shanghai, and Shenzhen each holding 1 seat. Chengdu Yunqi Puyue topped the list with 43,300 square meters, with an average price of 17,300 yuan/square meter, with remarkable demand characteristics; Jincheng Jiayun's famous residence followed. It is worth noting that although the transaction area of Chengdu Luhu Ecological City is only 19,400 square meters, it achieved a transaction amount of 820 million yuan with a high unit price of 42,241 yuan/square meter, confirming that high-quality location improvement products in core cities are resilient through the cycle.
Table 3 Top 10 sales area of newly built commercial residential projects in 15 key cities across the country in July 2026
Data source: CRIC China Real Estate Decision Consulting System.
The top 10 transaction amounts showed distinct characteristics of “high-end improvements in core cities”, and the pattern dominated by central enterprises in Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou was prominent. Shanghai and Shenzhen each hold 4 seats, while Hangzhou holds 2 seats. Shenzhen CITIC City Kaixinyue Bay led the price list with 2,924 million yuan, with an average price of 245,308 yuan/square meter; Anti Yayuan and Shanghai Huarun Yuqi Binjiang followed. In the TOP10, all of them are high-end projects with an average price of over 100,000 yuan/square meter, reflecting the independent market situation in the high-end market in core cities — in the context of the overall market downturn, the asset allocation needs of high-net-worth people still support the transaction of high-end improvement projects. In terms of traders, central enterprises and leading housing enterprises such as China Resources Land, Zhonghai Real Estate, Greentown China, Poly Development, Binjiang Group, and China's Jinmao occupy the top positions. Industry concentration continues to rise, and high-quality land plots and brand premiums have become the core support for the price list.
Table 4 Top 10 sales value of newly built commercial residential projects in 15 key cities nationwide in July 2026
Data source: CRIC China Real Estate Decision Consulting System.
3. Stock commercial housing market: transactions fell slightly by 5.7% month-on-month, with a positive increase of 9.47% year-on-year, showing resilience
1. Total transaction volume: over 13 million square meters in a single month, maintaining a positive year-on-year growth
Affected by the traditional off-season in July and the diversion of new homes, the total transaction area of second-hand housing in 13 key cities in July was 13.2093 million square meters, down 5.70% from the previous month and up 9.47% from the previous year. The year-on-year growth remained positive, but the growth rate fell 1.9 percentage points from the previous month.
In terms of transaction volume, after “Xiaoyangchun” surged to 15.3621 million square meters in March, the overall transaction area remained high at 13 to 16 million square meters, which is about 2 times the transaction area of new housing, which is clearly stronger than that of new homes.
The relative strength of the second-hand housing market is mainly due to two factors: first, price adjustments have been more adequate, and second-hand housing prices in some cities have fallen back to the psychological expectations of buyers, and the “price for volume” effect is remarkable; second, the release of replacement demand has driven the operation of the “sell one buy one” chain, and the activity of second-hand housing as a starting point for replacement has increased.
Figure 7 Changes in second-hand housing transaction area in 13 key national cities from January 2025 to July 2026
Data source: CRIC China Real Estate Decision Consulting System.
2. City performance: Shanghai and Rong have stabilized at more than 1.7 million square meters in size, with Suva leading the year-on-year increase
By city, in terms of transaction scale, Shanghai ranked first with 1.75 million square meters, followed by Chengdu with sales of 1,710,400 square meters. The two cities of Shanghai and Rong have stabilized at a high scale of more than 1.7 million square meters, leading the national second-hand housing market together. Beijing, Tianjin, and Chongqing also maintained a transaction scale of over 1 million square meters.
In terms of year-on-year performance, 12 out of 13 cities achieved positive growth, with Hangzhou alone falling 4.02% year over year. Suzhou ranked first with a year-on-year increase of 36.35%, followed by Foshan (+21.02%), Shanghai (+19.62%), Tianjin (+15.67%), and Wuhan (+11.95%). The growth rate was over 10%, and the market recovery momentum was strong.
On a month-on-month basis, Guangzhou (+1.46%) and Foshan (+15.24%) achieved positive month-on-month growth, while the remaining 11 cities all declined month-on-month, but the decline was generally in the single-digit range, and market adjustments were relatively moderate. Hangzhou became the only city with a month-on-month decline of 8.61% and a year-on-year decline of 4.02%, mainly due to a natural correction after the release of demand in the early stages.
Table 5 Changes in second-hand housing transaction area in 13 key national cities in July 2026 (unit: 10,000 square meters)
Data source: CRIC China Real Estate Decision Consulting System.
Four-year market outlook: The off-season effect continues, and the year-on-year decline in new homes in August is expected to continue to narrow
Entering August, the new housing market will still be in the traditional low season, and supply and transactions are likely to continue to weaken month-on-month; second-hand housing remains high based on replacement demand, but it may continue to decline slightly month-on-month. Overall, the “strong second-hand, weak new homes” pattern is difficult to change in the short term, and the replacement chain continues to support the new housing improvement market.
1. The supply-side contraction trend may continue, and “determine production by sales” has become the consensus of housing enterprises. Against the backdrop of sales pressure and tight funding, housing companies' willingness to push is generally weak. It is expected that the subsequent supply scale will remain low, and the supply-demand ratio is expected to continue to remain in the 0.6-0.7 range. The pattern of supply less than demand forms some support for inventory removal.
2. The short-term off-season effect will continue, and new housing sales may continue to operate at a low level in August. July-August is a low season for the traditional property market. Combined with hot weather and summer travel, buyers are less willing to enter the market. It is expected that new housing transactions in August 15 will still be under downward pressure from month to month. However, considering the low base for the same period last year (5.957,400 square meters traded in August 2025), the year-on-year decline is expected to continue to narrow or even correct.
3. Urban differentiation will further intensify, and core first-tier and high-energy second-tier cities are relatively resilient. Cities such as Shenzhen, Suzhou, and Nanjing have strong momentum for market restoration over the same period last year, while high-end markets in first-tier cities such as Shanghai and Beijing are still supported; while cities with high inventories, such as Changsha, Chengdu, and Foshan, are under high pressure to eliminate the market, and market adjustments may continue.
4. The second-hand housing market remains resilient, but the year-on-year increase or marginal narrowing. The second-hand housing market has maintained positive year-on-year growth for four consecutive months, but it has been declining for three consecutive months, and market momentum has weakened somewhat. Second-hand housing transactions are expected to continue to decline slightly from month to month in August. The year-on-year increase may narrow to the 5%-8% range, but it will still be significantly stronger than that of new homes.