1.79 million BTC became the $65,000 gap, dominated by a defensive mentality in the options market

According to Woofun AI, the market differentiation trend continued after the macro data was released. In July, the CPI rose 0.1% month-on-month and 3.4% year-on-year, and the core inflation rate rose 0.2% month-on-month and 2.5% year-on-year. Affected by this, the probability that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at the September meeting dropped from about 46% to 42%. Sygnum Bank Chief Investment Officer Fabian Dorry pointed out that the impact of monetary policy on digital asset prices has weakened, and liquidity factors have become a key variable.

Details of derivatives market transactions reveal complex defensive structures. When the price of Bitcoin was around $64,800 and the implied volatility was 33.53%, about 1,000 contracts were traded; the price then fell back to the $63,800 to $64,000 range, and the implied volatility rose to between 34% and 35%, and around 1,000 contracts were traded.

Notably, the second wave of trading occurred during a phase of weakening prices, indicating that traders had placed bullish positions ahead of time before the spot broke through resistance. However, the cost of protecting against downside risks remains high. DWF Labs managing director Andrey Grachev pointed out that after the release of the CPI data, a downside put option with a price of around $60,000 was more expensive than a corresponding call option with a price of around $70,000.

This pricing strategy reflects that while maintaining an active options structure, the market still has defense as its core logic. An environment with abnormally low overall volatility further solidifies this defensive price structure. Traders are willing to pay a premium to avoid falling, but this has not boosted overall volatility expectations.

Woofun AI collated data and showed that spot supply pressure posed another obstacle to breaking through the difficult situation. According to Bitfinex estimates, there are about 1.79 million bitcoins in circulation, accounting for 8.93%. The actual cost is between $62,000 and $65,000, and most of these bitcoins cost close to $63,800.

This means that once the price hits the upper limit of the recent range, a large number of holders will be in breakeven. As these holders face selling opportunities again, supply pressure is resurfacing. $65,000 is therefore an immediate obstacle preventing the price of Bitcoin from once again hitting the $70,000 target.

This supply-side resistance is mutually reinforcing with the options market's defensive mentality, causing the room for price growth to be significantly compressed.

From a structural perspective, factors such as the US Treasury's cash reserves, changes related to supplementary leverage ratios, the creation of private credit, and the popularity of stablecoins are gradually replacing traditional monetary policy as core variables affecting digital asset prices. The current market is showing clear defensive characteristics in a low volatility environment. Despite an increase in call option positions, the high cost of downside protection reflects participants' vigilance against potential risks. The resurgence of supply pressure combined with defensive pricing in the options market, making it difficult for Bitcoin to break through key resistance levels in the short term. This is a substantial constraint on the rise in prices formed by the microstructure of the market following the lackluster macro data.