Berenberg Downgrades Novo Nordisk to Hold Amid Growing Obesity Drug Competition

01:15 AM EDT, 08/13/2026 (MT Newswires) -- Berenberg downgraded Novo Nordisk's (NOVO-B.CO) rating and price target, citing intensifying competition in the obesity drug market and "limited" short-term catalysts. "Since the beginning of the year, our Buy thesis on Novo Nordisk has been predicated on upside to Wegovy pill expectations. This has played out through H1. We expect the 'Battle of the Pills' to step up a gear in H2. Valuation multiple expansion from here will require confirmation that Novo can retain its lead in obesity orals and grow its position in the injectable market. We await pipeline progress to support this. We downgrade to Hold and cut our price target to DKK305 [from DKK325]," the research firm said Wednesday. While Berenberg and the market model Wegovy pill sales to come in at 15 billion Danish kroner for 2026, analysts expect expanding Medicare access in the US will benefit Eli Lilly (LLY.SW, LLY.F) more than the Danish drugmaker. "Lilly's dominance in the injectable incretin market, compounded by Novo's [lackluster] P3 data in obesity and diabetes, promotes significant investor [skepticism] for CagriSema. While we think a second-line opportunity remains significant in obesity, we see limited opportunity in diabetes. We trim our sales forecasts accordingly. Investors are unlikely to be forgiving of our anticipated slow sales ramp, starting early next year," the note said. On the catalyst side, Berenberg expects US FDA rulings for CagriSema and high-dose oral Ozempic in fourth-quarter 2026, ahead of CagriSema's Redefine-11 readout in the first half of 2027. Meanwhile, Novo Nordisk's September 2026 capital markets day is anticipated to provide more insights into its early- and mid-stage pipeline, particularly next-generation amylins and triagonists.