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Osaka Soda (TSE:4046) Shares Just Climbed, So What Is Behind The Move?

Simply Wall St · 2d ago

Why Osaka Soda Stock Is Back in Focus After First Quarter Earnings

Osaka Soda (TSE:4046) is drawing attention after reporting first quarter results for the period ended June 30, 2026, with sales of ¥28,749 million and net income of ¥4,947 million.

Basic earnings per share from continuing operations for the quarter came in at ¥40.49. Investors who follow Osaka Soda now have fresh financial data to compare with the same period a year earlier.

See our latest analysis for Osaka Soda.

Osaka Soda's latest earnings report lands at a time when the share price has climbed 12.53% over the last day and 17.42% over the past week, yet the year to date share price return is still down 7.05%. At the same time, the 1 year total shareholder return of 17.25% and 5 year total shareholder return of roughly 3.5x suggest longer term holders have seen much stronger results and recent momentum has picked up following the earnings update.

If Osaka Soda’s recent jump has you looking wider across the market, this is a good moment to uncover 11 top founder-led companies

Osaka Soda’s recent results and years of shareholder gains point to a solid business. After such a sharp short term move, the key question is whether the stock already reflects that strength or still offers value.

Price-to-Earnings of 14.6x: Is It Justified for Osaka Soda?

Osaka Soda currently trades on a P/E of 14.6x, which sits above both its peer group and the wider JP Chemicals sector, so the market is pricing in relatively stronger earnings than those benchmarks.

The P/E ratio compares the share price to earnings per share and is a common way investors think about how much they are paying for current profits. For a chemicals business like Osaka Soda, this often reflects expectations for future earnings growth, profit margins and the resilience of cash flows through cycles.

In Osaka Soda's case, earnings are forecast to grow, but not at very high rates, with expected profit growth of 4.1% per year, slower than the wider JP market forecast of 8.7% per year. That makes the current 14.6x P/E look full when set against the estimated fair P/E of 14.5x. This is the level that our fair ratio model points to as a level the market could potentially move towards over time.

The comparison with peers adds another layer. The JP Chemicals industry trades on an average P/E of 12.7x and Osaka Soda's peer average is 13.1x. Against both of those anchors, a 14.6x P/E stands out as richer pricing for the same sector exposure.

Explore the SWS fair ratio for Osaka Soda

Result: Price-to-Earnings of 14.6x (OVERVALUED)

However, investors in Osaka Soda still need to consider risks such as slower forecast earnings growth and the current premium to both peer and sector P/E levels.

Find out about the key risks to this Osaka Soda narrative.

Another View On Osaka Soda’s Value Using Cash Flows

The earlier P/E workup paints Osaka Soda as slightly expensive. The SWS DCF model points in the same direction, with the current share price of ¥2,083 sitting above an estimated future cash flow value of ¥1,977.87. If both measures lean to the rich side, where might a margin of safety appear for you?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

4046 Discounted Cash Flow as at Aug 2026
4046 Discounted Cash Flow as at Aug 2026

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Osaka Soda for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 19 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Next Steps

If this Osaka Soda update leaves you feeling cautiously optimistic, consider reviewing the figures now while they are recent so you can compare the data directly. To examine the factors behind the more positive aspects of the story, review the 2 key rewards

Looking for more investment ideas beyond Osaka Soda?

If Osaka Soda has sharpened your focus, do not stop here. The market is full of other opportunities that could fit your goals just as well.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.