On Monday, at least two notable bets appeared in the SOFR options trading stream, betting that the expected interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve is being included in futures contracts expiring in December 2026 and March 2027. Among the options expiring in December 2026, the SFRZ6 96.5097.00 bullish option spread bought 20,000 lots at 1 point; the lower exercise price corresponds to an interest rate of 3.50%; the effective federal funds rate for most trading days since this year was 3.63%, while the interest rate corresponding to the current price of futures contracts due in December is 4.005%. Among the options due in March 2027, the SFRH7 98.50 call option bought 7,000 lots at 1.25 points, corresponding to an interest rate of 1.5%, compared to the current futures interest rate of 4.10%.

On Monday, at least two notable bets appeared in the SOFR options trading stream, betting that the expected interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve is being included in futures contracts expiring in December 2026 and March 2027. Among the options expiring in December 2026, the SFRZ6 96.5097.00 bullish option spread bought 20,000 lots at 1 point; the lower exercise price corresponds to an interest rate of 3.50%; the effective federal funds rate for most trading days since this year was 3.63%, while the interest rate corresponding to the current price of futures contracts due in December is 4.005%. Among the options due in March 2027, the SFRH7 98.50 call option bought 7,000 lots at 1.25 points, corresponding to an interest rate of 1.5%, compared to the current futures interest rate of 4.10%.