Trisura Group Ltd. Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Predictions
Last week saw the newest quarterly earnings release from Trisura Group Ltd. (TSE:TSU), an important milestone in the company's journey to build a stronger business. Revenues CA$870m disappointed slightly, at5.1% below what the analysts had predicted. Profits were a relative bright spot, with statutory per-share earnings of CA$0.89 coming in 14% above what was anticipated. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Trisura Group from eight analysts is for revenues of CA$3.32b in 2026. If met, it would imply a modest 2.5% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to decrease 3.8% to CA$3.19 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CA$3.42b and earnings per share (EPS) of CA$3.09 in 2026. So it's pretty clear that while sentiment around revenues has declined following the latest results, the analysts are now more bullish on the company's earnings power.
Check out our latest analysis for Trisura Group
There's been no real change to the average price target of CA$57.39, with the lower revenue and higher earnings forecasts not expected to meaningfully impact the company's valuation over a longer timeframe. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Trisura Group at CA$60.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at CA$51.00. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Trisura Group is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that Trisura Group's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 5.0% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 28% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 6.7% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Trisura Group is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.
The Bottom Line
The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Trisura Group's earnings potential next year. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. Even so, earnings are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Trisura Group analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.