Smartfit Escola de Ginástica e Dança S.A. Just Missed EPS By 24%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next
Smartfit Escola de Ginástica e Dança S.A. (BVMF:SMFT3) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 7.5% to R$18.15 in the week after its latest quarterly results. It looks like a pretty bad result, all things considered. Although revenues of R$2.2b were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings fell badly short, missing estimates by 24% to hit R$0.25 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Smartfit Escola de Ginástica e Dança from 13 analysts is for revenues of R$8.92b in 2026. If met, it would imply a solid 11% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to jump 27% to R$1.41. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of R$9.03b and earnings per share (EPS) of R$1.42 in 2026. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.
View our latest analysis for Smartfit Escola de Ginástica e Dança
There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of R$31.65, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Smartfit Escola de Ginástica e Dança analyst has a price target of R$38.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at R$25.00. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that Smartfit Escola de Ginástica e Dança's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 23% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 31% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 10% per year. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Smartfit Escola de Ginástica e Dança is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Smartfit Escola de Ginástica e Dança analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.
However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Smartfit Escola de Ginástica e Dança that you should be aware of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.