€3.18 - That's What Analysts Think Metsä Board Oyj (HEL:METSB) Is Worth After These Results
Shareholders of Metsä Board Oyj (HEL:METSB) will be pleased this week, given that the stock price is up 14% to €3.34 following its latest quarterly results. Revenues of €432m beat expectations by a respectable 2.0%, although statutory losses per share increased. Metsä Board Oyj lost €0.02, which was 400% more than what the analysts had included in their models. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Metsä Board Oyj after the latest results.
Following last week's earnings report, Metsä Board Oyj's six analysts are forecasting 2026 revenues to be €1.67b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 93% to €0.03. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of €1.66b and losses of €0.02 per share in 2026. While this year's revenue estimates held steady, there was also a sizeable expansion in loss per share expectations, suggesting the consensus has a bit of a mixed view on the stock.
See our latest analysis for Metsä Board Oyj
Although the analysts are now forecasting higher losses, the average price target rose 7.4% to 2.96, which could indicate that these losses are expected to be "one-off", or are not anticipated to have a longer-term impact on the business. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Metsä Board Oyj at €4.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at €2.60. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. From these estimates it looks as though the analysts expect the years of declining revenue to come to an end, given the flat forecast out to 2026. That would be a definite improvement, given that the past five years have seen revenue shrink 5.2% annually. Compare this against analyst estimates for the broader industry, which suggest that (in aggregate) industry revenues are expected to grow 3.3% annually. So it's pretty clear that, although revenues are improving, Metsä Board Oyj is still expected to grow slower than the industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Metsä Board Oyj's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Metsä Board Oyj. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Metsä Board Oyj going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..
You can also see whether Metsä Board Oyj is carrying too much debt, and whether its balance sheet is healthy, for free on our platform here.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.