Sumco Corporation (TSE:3436) Interim Results: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For This Year
Investors in Sumco Corporation (TSE:3436) had a good week, as its shares rose 3.4% to close at JP¥3,470 following the release of its half-year results. It was a pretty bad result overall; while revenues were in line with expectations at JP¥215b, statutory losses exploded to JP¥12.65 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Sumco's 16 analysts is for revenues of JP¥448.1b in 2026. This reflects an okay 6.9% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 46% to JP¥43.11. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of JP¥441.5b and losses of JP¥52.89 per share in 2026. Although the revenue estimates have not really changed Sumco'sfuture looks a little different to the past, with a favorable reduction in the loss per share forecasts in particular.
See our latest analysis for Sumco
The average price target held steady at JP¥3,720, seeming to indicate that business is performing in line with expectations. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Sumco, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at JP¥6,500 and the most bearish at JP¥1,300 per share. With such a wide range in price targets, analysts are almost certainly betting on widely divergent outcomes in the underlying business. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. The analysts are definitely expecting Sumco's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 14% annualised growth to the end of 2026 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 3.3% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 17% per year. It seems obvious that, while the future growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, Sumco is expected to grow slower than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion is that the analysts made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Sumco's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Sumco going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Plus, you should also learn about the 1 warning sign we've spotted with Sumco .
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.