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Oracle (ORCL) Could Be 26% Below Fair Value As Contract News Revives Interest

Simply Wall St · 2d ago

Oracle (ORCL) is back in focus after CACI International was selected as a technology partner on a nearly US$400 million, 10 year federal HR modernization contract that centers on Oracle Fusion HCM cloud software.

See our latest analysis for Oracle.

At a share price of US$143.47, Oracle has seen a strong 7 day share price return of 12.47%, although the 90 day share price return is down 26.78% and the 1 year total shareholder return is down 41.82%. This indicates that recent momentum follows a weaker stretch.

If you are looking beyond Oracle and want to see which other companies are benefiting from AI driven demand for infrastructure, now could be a good moment to scan 55 AI infrastructure stocks

After a sharp 7 day rebound but a much weaker 1 year result, Oracle now sits at a crossroads. Is this the start of a better entry passing by, or already the opportunity many investors were waiting for?

Most Popular Narrative: 25.5% Undervalued

According to a widely followed valuation narrative from user andre_santos, Oracle's fair value of $192.59 sits well above the latest close at $143.47, which frames the recent price swing in a very different light.

To calculate the intrinsic value of the company I'll use multiple methods.

Discounted Cash Flows (DCF): intrinsic value is estimated by projecting its free cash flows over the next 10 years and discounting them to present value using the estimated cost of capital.

Read the complete narrative. Read the complete narrative.

Want to understand why this narrative assigns such a premium to Oracle? The entire case leans on aggressive revenue expansion, wider margins and compounded earnings growth assumptions. The detailed mix of DCF, earnings projections and historical checks is where the full story sits.

Result: Fair Value of $192.59 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, this Oracle narrative could be affected by weaker than expected AI infrastructure demand or by a reassessment of valuation assumptions, such as growth and discount rates.

Find out about the key risks to this Oracle narrative.

Next Steps

Mixed signals around Oracle can feel confusing, so move quickly from opinion to facts and review both the potential upside and the caution flags by checking the 4 key rewards and 3 important warning signs.

Looking for more investment ideas beyond Oracle?

If Oracle has your attention, do not stop there. Use the Simply Wall Street Screener to uncover fresh stocks that match your goals before others focus on them.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.