Orient Securities: Continued optimization of drug collection rules to shift from low prices to comprehensive competition

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Orient Securities released a research report saying that the core change in the country's 12th batch of drug collection is a shift from “low price competition” to comprehensive competition of “price, clinical demand, brand base, and supply capacity.” The double anchor point and quotation rationality statement mechanism reduced the impact of extreme low prices directly impacting the market price system; the revival mechanism reserved hospital entry and procurement entrances for major brands and some original research products with a strong foundation for clinical use. It is recommended to focus on enterprises that intend to select multiple varieties or large varieties and have large-scale production, cost control and multi-variety supply capabilities.

Orient Securities's main views are as follows:

incident

On July 31, tenders for the 12th batch of centralized procurement of state-organized drugs were opened. All 65 varieties were successfully purchased. Up to now, the national procurement has covered 555 types of drugs. The current procurement cycle starts from the date of implementation of the results to December 31, 2029. It is expected that patients across the country will use the 12th batch of selected drugs collected and reduced in price within this year.

Rules: “Double anchor point” reverse internal volume, recovery mechanism stabilizes clinical practice

The twelfth batch was collected on the basis of the eleventh batch of single anchors and introduced anchor price ① and anchor price ②. Although companies whose price is lower than the anchor price ② can be selected, the agreed purchase volume is 0 and they do not occupy the shortlisted quota. The extreme low price changed from “selected and won” to “selected but not enough”, reducing the motivation for companies to compete for market share through ultra-low prices. At the same time, rule 3 continues to provide recovery channels for companies that are not shortlisted but have high brand demand and have a basis for clinical use, and obtain an agreed purchase volume of 30%, 50%, or 80% according to the price gradient; eligible reference formulations can also be treated as selected without dosage. Overall, procurement competition is shifting from simply pursuing the lowest price to a comprehensive balance between price, clinical demand, and supply capacity.

Variety: obvious differentiation, intense overall competition

The total market size of the 65 varieties involved in the twelfth batch was about 74.56 billion yuan in 2025, of which the top 10 varieties, including sacubatl valsartan, tacrolimus, indolebufen, and ceftazidime avibatan, account for nearly half of sales. Judging from the number of reviews, the market size of products such as tacrolimus, imipenem, ciclosporin, ambroxol hydrochloride for inhalation, and fenofibrate is large but competition is relatively manageable; the market size of varieties such as vitamin B6, bisoprolol amlodipine, bumetanib, complex potassium phosphate, calcium chloride, and measartan is relatively small and the pattern is crowded. Judging from the final bidding situation, an average of 15 companies participated in the bidding for each category, and the largest number of companies reached 49, and overall competition was fierce.

Results: The number of original research has reached a record high, and the selected results are more in line with actual needs

In this collection, a total of 495 companies bid for 859 products. In the end, 521 products from 327 companies were eligible for selection, and the proposed selection rate continued to rise. A total of 10 reference formulations were selected from this collection, including Novarticlavalsartan, Bayer iopromide, Eisai betahistine, and Abbott Droprogesterone. Mainstream companies such as Qilu Pharmaceutical, Colon Pharmaceutical, Shijiazhuang Siyao, and Beite Pharmaceutical have also been selected from a variety of products. Overall, the 12th batch collection highlighted the goal of “stabilizing clinical practice, counteracting internal volume, ensuring quality, and ensuring supply”, gradually shifting from a single low price competition to comprehensive competition, and the selection results were more in line with actual clinical needs.

Risk Alerts

Risk of changes in selection results, risk of price reduction exceeding expectations for collection, risk of actual procurement volume falling short of expectations, etc.