CHF17.08 - That's What Analysts Think ams-OSRAM AG (VTX:AMS) Is Worth After These Results
It's been a pretty great week for ams-OSRAM AG (VTX:AMS) shareholders, with its shares surging 12% to CHF17.61 in the week since its latest quarterly results. Revenues of €805m beat expectations by a respectable 2.3%, although statutory losses per share increased. ams-OSRAM lost €1.22, which was 71% more than what the analysts had included in their models. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.
After the latest results, the consensus from ams-OSRAM's eight analysts is for revenues of €3.24b in 2026, which would reflect a perceptible 2.7% decline in revenue compared to the last year of performance. Losses are forecast to narrow 9.1% to €2.96 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of €3.21b and losses of €3.11 per share in 2026. It looks like there's been a modest increase in sentiment in the recent updates, with the analysts becoming a bit more optimistic in their predictions for losses per share, even though the revenue numbers were unchanged.
See our latest analysis for ams-OSRAM
The average price target rose 6.5% to CHF17.08, with the analysts signalling that the forecast reduction in losses would be a positive for the stock's valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic ams-OSRAM analyst has a price target of CHF24.10 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at CHF9.00. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. One thing that stands out from these estimates is that shrinking revenues are expected to moderate over the period ending 2026 compared to the historical decline of 11% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 17% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while it does have declining revenues, the analysts also expect ams-OSRAM to suffer worse than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion is that the analysts made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on ams-OSRAM. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for ams-OSRAM going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..
We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 2 warning signs for ams-OSRAM (1 is potentially serious!) that you need to be mindful of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.